QuarterfinalWomenOctober 9, 2026
Fernandez / Calvo v Ortega / Araujo
Pre-match odds
Fernandez / Calvo
86%
Avg Elo 1996
Ortega / Araujo
14%
Avg Elo 1838
Elo gap 158
Fernandez / Calvo delivered as 86% favourites.
How the odds work
Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.
These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.
Elo ratings: Padel API
Match stats
Fernandez / CalvoOrtega / Araujo
- Points won 38%
- Points won on serve 40%
- Points won on return 36%
- 1st-serve points won 37%
- 2nd-serve points won 75%
- Points won returning 1st serve 33%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 60%
- Break points converted 100%
- Longest run of points 4
- Service games 7
62%
64%
60%
67%
40%
63%
25%
50%
6
8
Stats by set
Set 1
- Points won 30%
- Points won on serve 29%
- Points won on return 30%
- 1st-serve points won 27%
- 2nd-serve points won 50%
- Points won returning 1st serve 32%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 0%
- Break points converted 0%
- Longest run of points 2
- Service games 3
70%
70%
71%
68%
100%
73%
50%
60%
6
3
Set 2
- Points won 43%
- Points won on serve 48%
- Points won on return 39%
- 1st-serve points won 43%
- 2nd-serve points won 100%
- Points won returning 1st serve 34%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 75%
- Break points converted 100%
- Longest run of points 4
- Service games 4
57%
61%
52%
66%
25%
57%
0%
40%
5
5
Point by point
No point-by-point for this match.
Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.