The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalWomenOctober 9, 2026

Alonso / Guinart v Gonzalez / Josemaria

Center Court00:53

Pre-match odds

Alonso / Guinart

8%

Avg Elo 1763

Gonzalez / Josemaria

92%

Avg Elo 1980

Elo gap 218

Gonzalez / Josemaria delivered as 92% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Alonso / GuinartGonzalez / Josemaria

33%
Points won
67%
36%
Points won on serve
71%
29%
Points won on return
64%
33%
1st-serve points won
72%
60%
2nd-serve points won
0%
28%
Points won returning 1st serve
67%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
40%
0%
Break points converted
83%
3
Longest run of points
7
6
Service games
7
Stats by set

Set 1

24%
Points won
76%
20%
Points won on serve
72%
28%
Points won on return
80%
21%
1st-serve points won
72%
0%
2nd-serve points won
0%
28%
Points won returning 1st serve
79%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
0%
Break points converted
100%
2
Longest run of points
5
3
Service games
3

Set 2

38%
Points won
62%
45%
Points won on serve
70%
30%
Points won on return
55%
40%
1st-serve points won
73%
75%
2nd-serve points won
0%
27%
Points won returning 1st serve
60%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
25%
0%
Break points converted
67%
3
Longest run of points
7
3
Service games
4

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.