The Padel Brief

Round of 16MenOctober 11, 2026

Iriart / Salandro v Roglan / Aragon

Winner
746
Court 3 (Get Fit)

Pre-match odds

Iriart / Salandro

30%

Avg Elo 1484

Roglan / Aragon

70%

Avg Elo 1558

Elo gap 74

Roglan / Aragon delivered as 70% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Iriart / SalandroRoglan / Aragon

47%
Points won
53%
62%
Points won on serve
66%
34%
Points won on return
38%
63%
1st-serve points won
67%
54%
2nd-serve points won
57%
33%
Points won returning 1st serve
37%
43%
Points won returning 2nd serve
46%
50%
Break points converted
38%
6
Longest run of points
6
15
Service games
16
Stats by set

Set 1

47%
Points won
53%
67%
Points won on serve
69%
31%
Points won on return
33%
67%
1st-serve points won
73%
67%
2nd-serve points won
40%
27%
Points won returning 1st serve
33%
60%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
33%
Break points converted
50%
5
Longest run of points
6
6
Service games
6

Set 2

52%
Points won
48%
67%
Points won on serve
67%
33%
Points won on return
33%
68%
1st-serve points won
70%
60%
2nd-serve points won
57%
30%
Points won returning 1st serve
32%
43%
Points won returning 2nd serve
40%
100%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
5

Set 3

43%
Points won
57%
48%
Points won on serve
61%
39%
Points won on return
52%
52%
1st-serve points won
59%
0%
2nd-serve points won
100%
41%
Points won returning 1st serve
48%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
50%
Break points converted
50%
4
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
5

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.