Round of 16WomenOctober 11, 2026
Castillon / Vano v Casali / Guerra
Pre-match odds
Castillon / Vano
57%
Avg Elo 1548
Casali / Guerra
43%
Avg Elo 1524
Elo gap 24
Castillon / Vano delivered as 57% favourites.
How the odds work
Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.
These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.
Elo ratings: Padel API
Match stats
Castillon / VanoCasali / Guerra
- Points won 42%
- Points won on serve 46%
- Points won on return 38%
- 1st-serve points won 55%
- 2nd-serve points won 21%
- Points won returning 1st serve 39%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 36%
- Break points converted 50%
- Longest run of points 5
- Service games 8
58%
62%
54%
61%
64%
45%
79%
56%
6
9
Stats by set
Set 1
- Points won 38%
- Points won on serve 33%
- Points won on return 41%
- 1st-serve points won 50%
- 2nd-serve points won 0%
- Points won returning 1st serve 36%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 60%
- Break points converted 33%
- Longest run of points 3
- Service games 3
62%
59%
67%
64%
40%
50%
100%
100%
6
4
Set 2
- Points won 45%
- Points won on serve 53%
- Points won on return 36%
- 1st-serve points won 57%
- 2nd-serve points won 38%
- Points won returning 1st serve 41%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 17%
- Break points converted 100%
- Longest run of points 5
- Service games 5
55%
64%
47%
59%
83%
43%
62%
33%
5
5
Point by point
No point-by-point for this match.
Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.