Round of 64MenOctober 12, 2026
Axelsson / Ortega v Cepero / Fdz Lancha
Pre-match odds
Upset71%
Avg Elo 1616
29%
Avg Elo 1538
Elo gap 79
Cepero / Fdz Lancha won with a 29% chance — about 1 in 3.
How the odds work
Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.
These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.
Elo ratings: Padel API
Match stats
Axelsson / OrtegaCepero / Fdz Lancha
- Points won 52%
- Points won on serve 65%
- Points won on return 36%
- 1st-serve points won 68%
- 2nd-serve points won 43%
- Points won returning 1st serve 36%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 36%
- Break points converted 38%
- Longest run of points 7
- Service games 17
Stats by set
Set 1
- Points won 48%
- Points won on serve 55%
- Points won on return 39%
- 1st-serve points won 57%
- 2nd-serve points won 33%
- Points won returning 1st serve 38%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 50%
- Break points converted 50%
- Longest run of points 7
- Service games 6
Set 2
- Points won 53%
- Points won on serve 66%
- Points won on return 35%
- 1st-serve points won 71%
- 2nd-serve points won 43%
- Points won returning 1st serve 32%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 50%
- Break points converted 50%
- Longest run of points 4
- Service games 5
Set 3
- Points won 54%
- Points won on serve 76%
- Points won on return 33%
- 1st-serve points won 79%
- 2nd-serve points won 50%
- Points won returning 1st serve 36%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 17%
- Break points converted 0%
- Longest run of points 5
- Service games 6
Point by point
No point-by-point for this match.
Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.