The Padel Brief

Round of 64MenOctober 12, 2026

Romera / Gonzalez v Garcia / Aguirre

Centre Court01:17

Pre-match odds

Romera / Gonzalez

43%

Avg Elo 1619

Garcia / Aguirre

57%

Avg Elo 1644

Elo gap 25

Garcia / Aguirre delivered as 57% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Romera / GonzalezGarcia / Aguirre

44%
Points won
56%
53%
Points won on serve
66%
34%
Points won on return
47%
53%
1st-serve points won
69%
50%
2nd-serve points won
40%
31%
Points won returning 1st serve
47%
60%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
17%
Break points converted
33%
4
Longest run of points
7
9
Service games
9
Stats by set

Set 1

48%
Points won
52%
58%
Points won on serve
67%
33%
Points won on return
42%
61%
1st-serve points won
68%
0%
2nd-serve points won
50%
32%
Points won returning 1st serve
39%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
33%
Break points converted
29%
4
Longest run of points
7
5
Service games
5

Set 2

40%
Points won
60%
46%
Points won on serve
66%
34%
Points won on return
54%
40%
1st-serve points won
69%
67%
2nd-serve points won
33%
31%
Points won returning 1st serve
60%
67%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
0%
Break points converted
40%
3
Longest run of points
6
4
Service games
4

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.