The Padel Brief

Round of 32MenOctober 14, 2026

Ruiz / Garcia v Sanchez / Gutierrez

Winner
466
Court 2 (Get Fit)02:00

Pre-match odds

Upset
Ruiz / Garcia

18%

Avg Elo 1644

Sanchez / Gutierrez

82%

Avg Elo 1773

Elo gap 129

Ruiz / Garcia won with a 18% chance — about 1 in 5.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Ruiz / GarciaSanchez / Gutierrez

52%
Points won
48%
60%
Points won on serve
55%
45%
Points won on return
40%
60%
1st-serve points won
56%
62%
2nd-serve points won
50%
44%
Points won returning 1st serve
40%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
38%
50%
Break points converted
33%
6
Longest run of points
4
14
Service games
14
0
Double faults
1
Stats by set

Set 1

46%
Points won
54%
53%
Points won on serve
61%
39%
Points won on return
47%
57%
1st-serve points won
62%
25%
2nd-serve points won
57%
38%
Points won returning 1st serve
43%
43%
Points won returning 2nd serve
75%
50%
Break points converted
50%
6
Longest run of points
4
5
Service games
5
0
Double faults
1

Set 2

53%
Points won
47%
64%
Points won on serve
60%
40%
Points won on return
36%
62%
1st-serve points won
60%
71%
2nd-serve points won
0%
40%
Points won returning 1st serve
38%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
29%
100%
Break points converted
0%
4
Longest run of points
3
5
Service games
5

Set 3

58%
Points won
42%
64%
Points won on serve
46%
54%
Points won on return
36%
60%
1st-serve points won
47%
80%
2nd-serve points won
0%
53%
Points won returning 1st serve
40%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
20%
43%
Break points converted
100%
5
Longest run of points
3
4
Service games
4

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.