The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalMenOctober 16, 2026

Lebron / Augsburger v Garrido / De Pascual

Centre Court01:42

Pre-match odds

Lebron / Augsburger

84%

Avg Elo 1891

Garrido / De Pascual

16%

Avg Elo 1745

Elo gap 146

Lebron / Augsburger delivered as 84% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Lebron / AugsburgerGarrido / De Pascual

55%
Points won
45%
72%
Points won on serve
60%
40%
Points won on return
28%
72%
1st-serve points won
65%
71%
2nd-serve points won
14%
35%
Points won returning 1st serve
28%
86%
Points won returning 2nd serve
29%
14%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
4
11
Service games
10
Stats by set

Set 1

55%
Points won
45%
75%
Points won on serve
61%
39%
Points won on return
25%
75%
1st-serve points won
67%
75%
2nd-serve points won
20%
33%
Points won returning 1st serve
25%
80%
Points won returning 2nd serve
25%
0%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
4
6
Service games
6

Set 2

56%
Points won
44%
69%
Points won on serve
58%
42%
Points won on return
31%
69%
1st-serve points won
62%
67%
2nd-serve points won
0%
38%
Points won returning 1st serve
31%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
33%
Break points converted
0%
4
Longest run of points
3
5
Service games
4

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.