The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalMenOctober 16, 2026

Alfonso / Libaak v Galan / Chingotto

Centre Court01:33

Pre-match odds

Alfonso / Libaak

11%

Avg Elo 1819

Galan / Chingotto

89%

Avg Elo 2000

Elo gap 181

Galan / Chingotto delivered as 89% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Alfonso / LibaakGalan / Chingotto

46%
Points won
54%
60%
Points won on serve
68%
32%
Points won on return
40%
61%
1st-serve points won
69%
50%
2nd-serve points won
62%
31%
Points won returning 1st serve
39%
38%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
20%
Break points converted
25%
6
Longest run of points
8
10
Service games
11
Stats by set

Set 1

45%
Points won
55%
62%
Points won on serve
69%
31%
Points won on return
38%
67%
1st-serve points won
69%
40%
2nd-serve points won
67%
31%
Points won returning 1st serve
33%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
60%
0%
Break points converted
25%
5
Longest run of points
5
4
Service games
5

Set 2

47%
Points won
53%
59%
Points won on serve
68%
32%
Points won on return
41%
58%
1st-serve points won
69%
67%
2nd-serve points won
60%
31%
Points won returning 1st serve
42%
40%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
20%
Break points converted
25%
6
Longest run of points
8
6
Service games
6

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.