The Padel Brief

SemifinalMenOctober 17, 2026

Lebron / Augsburger v Galan / Chingotto

Centre Court01:23

Pre-match odds

Upset
Lebron / Augsburger

23%

Avg Elo 1897

Galan / Chingotto

77%

Avg Elo 2004

Elo gap 107

Lebron / Augsburger won with a 23% chance — about 1 in 4.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Lebron / AugsburgerGalan / Chingotto

56%
Points won
44%
70%
Points won on serve
56%
44%
Points won on return
30%
69%
1st-serve points won
57%
80%
2nd-serve points won
40%
43%
Points won returning 1st serve
31%
60%
Points won returning 2nd serve
20%
44%
Break points converted
60%
14
Longest run of points
6
11
Service games
11
Stats by set

Set 1

26%
Points won
74%
33%
Points won on serve
86%
14%
Points won on return
67%
32%
1st-serve points won
85%
50%
2nd-serve points won
100%
15%
Points won returning 1st serve
68%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
0%
Break points converted
60%
3
Longest run of points
6
3
Service games
3

Set 2

72%
Points won
28%
94%
Points won on serve
43%
57%
Points won on return
6%
93%
1st-serve points won
47%
100%
2nd-serve points won
25%
53%
Points won returning 1st serve
7%
75%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
67%
Break points converted
0%
14
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
4

Set 3

67%
Points won
33%
89%
Points won on serve
50%
50%
Points won on return
11%
88%
1st-serve points won
50%
100%
2nd-serve points won
0%
50%
Points won returning 1st serve
12%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
33%
Break points converted
0%
7
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
4

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.