Round of 16WomenOctober 15, 2026
Fernandez / Calvo v Castello / Rodriguez
Pre-match odds
Fernandez / Calvo
97%
Avg Elo 2048
Castello / Rodriguez
3%
Avg Elo 1731
Elo gap 317
Fernandez / Calvo delivered as 97% favourites.
How the odds work
Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.
These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.
Elo ratings: Padel API
Match stats
Fernandez / CalvoCastello / Rodriguez
- Points won 38%
- Points won on serve 43%
- Points won on return 31%
- 1st-serve points won 44%
- 2nd-serve points won 0%
- Points won returning 1st serve 31%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 33%
- Break points converted 40%
- Longest run of points 4
- Service games 8
62%
69%
57%
69%
67%
56%
100%
38%
15
9
Stats by set
Set 1
- Points won 40%
- Points won on serve 48%
- Points won on return 31%
- 1st-serve points won 48%
- 2nd-serve points won 0%
- Points won returning 1st serve 32%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 29%
- Break points converted 33%
- Longest run of points 4
- Service games 4
60%
69%
52%
68%
71%
52%
0%
33%
7
5
Set 2
- Points won 35%
- Points won on serve 38%
- Points won on return 32%
- 1st-serve points won 39%
- 2nd-serve points won 0%
- Points won returning 1st serve 29%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 40%
- Break points converted 50%
- Longest run of points 4
- Service games 4
65%
68%
62%
71%
60%
61%
100%
43%
10
4
Point by point
No point-by-point for this match.
Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.