QuarterfinalWomenOctober 16, 2026
Fernandez / Calvo v Ortega / Araujo
Pre-match odds
Fernandez / Calvo
92%
Avg Elo 2049
Ortega / Araujo
8%
Avg Elo 1838
Elo gap 211
Fernandez / Calvo delivered as 92% favourites.
How the odds work
Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.
These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.
Elo ratings: Padel API
Match stats
Fernandez / CalvoOrtega / Araujo
- Points won 34%
- Points won on serve 43%
- Points won on return 26%
- 1st-serve points won 48%
- 2nd-serve points won 0%
- Points won returning 1st serve 22%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 50%
- Break points converted 0%
- Longest run of points 4
- Service games 7
66%
74%
57%
78%
50%
52%
100%
67%
13
8
Stats by set
Set 1
- Points won 32%
- Points won on serve 38%
- Points won on return 29%
- 1st-serve points won 46%
- 2nd-serve points won 0%
- Points won returning 1st serve 27%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 50%
- Break points converted 0%
- Longest run of points 2
- Service games 3
68%
71%
62%
73%
50%
54%
100%
67%
5
4
Set 2
- Points won 35%
- Points won on serve 48%
- Points won on return 23%
- 1st-serve points won 50%
- 2nd-serve points won 0%
- Points won returning 1st serve 17%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 50%
- Break points converted 0%
- Longest run of points 4
- Service games 4
65%
77%
52%
83%
50%
50%
100%
67%
13
4
Point by point
No point-by-point for this match.
Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.