The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalWomenOctober 23, 2026

Fassio / Virseda v Fernandez / Guerra

M. FassioV. Virseda
C. FernandezN. Guerra
Court 2

Win probability

Fassio / Virseda

92%

Avg Elo 1761

Fernandez / Guerra

8%

Avg Elo 1554

Elo gap 207

Fassio / Virseda are strong favourites — they'd win about 9 in 10.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These use today's Elo, so they move as results come in.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Point by point

Point by point appears here once the match is on court.