The Padel Brief

Round of 16MenOctober 24, 2026

Marques / Richters v Naranjo / Zapata

A. MarquesS. Richters
53
A. NaranjoT. Zapata
Winner
76
Court 3 Volvo01:31

Pre-match odds

Marques / Richters

42%

Avg Elo 1540

Naranjo / Zapata

58%

Avg Elo 1566

Elo gap 27

Naranjo / Zapata delivered as 58% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Marques / RichtersNaranjo / Zapata

46%
Points won
54%
57%
Points won on serve
64%
36%
Points won on return
43%
60%
1st-serve points won
64%
33%
2nd-serve points won
67%
36%
Points won returning 1st serve
40%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
67%
50%
Break points converted
38%
5
Longest run of points
6
10
Service games
11
Stats by set

Set 1

48%
Points won
52%
65%
Points won on serve
71%
29%
Points won on return
35%
69%
1st-serve points won
70%
40%
2nd-serve points won
75%
30%
Points won returning 1st serve
31%
25%
Points won returning 2nd serve
60%
0%
Break points converted
17%
5
Longest run of points
6
6
Service games
6

Set 2

43%
Points won
57%
46%
Points won on serve
58%
42%
Points won on return
54%
48%
1st-serve points won
58%
0%
2nd-serve points won
60%
42%
Points won returning 1st serve
52%
40%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
50%
Break points converted
100%
4
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Marques / Richters first, Naranjo / Zapata second.

111 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 15–7

Breaks 0–1

  1. 0–1

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Marques / Richters serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–40
    5. 40–ABP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 15–30
    2. 15–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Marques / Richters serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Marques / Richters serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Marques / Richters serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Marques / Richters serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40BP
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    7. 40–40
    8. A–40
    9. 40–40
    10. A–40
    Hold
  11. 5–6

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  12. 5–7

    Marques / Richters serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break

Set 23–6

Breaks 1–2

  1. 0–1

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–0
    3. 0–15
    4. 15–15
    5. 15–30
    6. 15–40
    7. 30–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Marques / Richters serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–0
    4. 15–15
    5. 15–30
    6. 30–30
    7. 30–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Marques / Richters serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Marques / Richters serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  7. 3–4

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    Break
  8. 3–5

    Marques / Richters serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–0
    3. 0–15
    4. 15–15
    5. 15–30
    6. 15–40BP
    Break
  9. 3–6

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.