The Padel Brief

Round of 16MenOctober 24, 2026

Axelsson / Ortega v Pineda / Contreras

A. AxelssonM. Ortega
Winner
66
S. PinedaS. Contreras
32
Court 3 Volvo01:01

Pre-match odds

Axelsson / Ortega

61%

Avg Elo 1597

Pineda / Contreras

39%

Avg Elo 1557

Elo gap 40

Axelsson / Ortega delivered as 61% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Axelsson / OrtegaPineda / Contreras

60%
Points won
40%
80%
Points won on serve
53%
47%
Points won on return
20%
79%
1st-serve points won
52%
100%
2nd-serve points won
62%
48%
Points won returning 1st serve
21%
38%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
36%
Break points converted
0%
7
Longest run of points
4
8
Service games
9
Stats by set

Set 1

58%
Points won
42%
84%
Points won on serve
58%
42%
Points won on return
16%
83%
1st-serve points won
57%
100%
2nd-serve points won
67%
43%
Points won returning 1st serve
17%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
33%
Break points converted
0%
7
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
5

Set 2

62%
Points won
38%
76%
Points won on serve
48%
52%
Points won on return
24%
75%
1st-serve points won
45%
100%
2nd-serve points won
60%
55%
Points won returning 1st serve
25%
40%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
40%
Break points converted
0%
7
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Axelsson / Ortega first, Pineda / Contreras second.

80 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–3

Breaks 2–0

  1. 1–0

    Pineda / Contreras serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 0–0
    3. 15–0
    4. 30–0
    5. 40–0
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Pineda / Contreras serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Pineda / Contreras serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Pineda / Contreras serving

    1. 15–40
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  9. 6–3

    Pineda / Contreras serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    10. 40–40
    Break

Set 26–2

Breaks 2–0

  1. 1–0

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Pineda / Contreras serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Pineda / Contreras serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–15
    4. 0–30
    5. 15–30
    6. 30–30
    7. 30–40
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Pineda / Contreras serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  7. 5–2

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  8. 6–2

    Pineda / Contreras serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.