The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalMenOctober 24, 2026

Moragues / Fonteny v Naranjo / Zapata

N. MoraguesT. Fonteny
Winner
66
A. NaranjoT. Zapata
24
Center Court Bnk01:09

Pre-match odds

Moragues / Fonteny

57%

Avg Elo 1591

Naranjo / Zapata

43%

Avg Elo 1566

Elo gap 25

Moragues / Fonteny delivered as 57% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Moragues / FontenyNaranjo / Zapata

58%
Points won
42%
64%
Points won on serve
47%
53%
Points won on return
36%
65%
1st-serve points won
50%
50%
2nd-serve points won
0%
50%
Points won returning 1st serve
35%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
45%
Break points converted
40%
6
Longest run of points
4
9
Service games
9
0
Double faults
1
Stats by set

Set 1

58%
Points won
42%
73%
Points won on serve
54%
46%
Points won on return
27%
73%
1st-serve points won
58%
0%
2nd-serve points won
0%
42%
Points won returning 1st serve
27%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
50%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
3
4
Service games
4

Set 2

58%
Points won
42%
58%
Points won on serve
42%
58%
Points won on return
42%
59%
1st-serve points won
43%
50%
2nd-serve points won
0%
57%
Points won returning 1st serve
41%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
43%
Break points converted
40%
6
Longest run of points
4
5
Service games
5
0
Double faults
1

Point by point

Scores read Moragues / Fonteny first, Naranjo / Zapata second.

87 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–2

Breaks 2–0

  1. 0–1

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    7. 40–40
    8. A–40BP
    9. 40–40
    Break
  4. 3–1

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  6. 5–1

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    Hold
  8. 6–2

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–30
    Hold

Set 26–4

Breaks 3–2

  1. 0–1

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15BP
    4. 40–30BP
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  6. 3–3

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break
  7. 4–3

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  8. 4–4

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40BP
    4. 30–40BP
    Break
  9. 5–4

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  10. 6–4

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.