The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalMenOctober 24, 2026

Axelsson / Ortega v Ayats / Sanchez

A. AxelssonM. Ortega
Winner
276
A. AyatsE. Sanchez
662
Center Court Bnk02:09

Pre-match odds

Upset
Axelsson / Ortega

27%

Avg Elo 1597

Ayats / Sanchez

73%

Avg Elo 1683

Elo gap 86

Axelsson / Ortega won with a 27% chance — about 1 in 4.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Point by point

Scores read Axelsson / Ortega first, Ayats / Sanchez second.

160 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 12–6

Breaks 0–2

  1. 0–1

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–ABP
    Break
  2. 0–2

    Ayats / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Ayats / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  5. 1–4

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break
  6. 1–5

    Ayats / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  7. 2–5

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  8. 2–6

    Ayats / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold

Set 27–6

Breaks 0–0

  1. 1–0

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Ayats / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Ayats / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Ayats / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Ayats / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 15–30
    5. 30–30
    6. 15–30
    7. 30–30
    8. 30–40BP
    9. 40–40
    10. A–40
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Ayats / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  11. 6–5

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  12. 6–6

    Ayats / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  13. 7–6

    Axelsson / Ortega take it 7–3

    1. 1–0
    2. 1–1
    3. 1–2
    4. 2–2
    5. 2–3
    6. 3–3
    7. 4–3
    8. 5–3
    9. 6–3
    Tiebreak

Set 36–2

Breaks 2–0

  1. 0–1

    Ayats / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Ayats / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  4. 3–1

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–ABP
    10. 40–40
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Ayats / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Ayats / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–0
    3. 15–15
    4. 0–15
    5. 15–15
    6. 30–15
    7. 30–30
    8. 30–40
    9. 40–40
    10. A–40BP
    Break
  8. 6–2

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.