The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalMenOctober 24, 2026

Roglan / Aragon v Moya / Leygue

A. RoglanM. Aragon
666
J. MoyaT. Leygue
Winner
737
Court 1 Alghanim02:41

Pre-match odds

Roglan / Aragon

34%

Avg Elo 1548

Moya / Leygue

66%

Avg Elo 1608

Elo gap 60

Moya / Leygue delivered as 66% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Roglan / AragonMoya / Leygue

50%
Points won
50%
70%
Points won on serve
72%
28%
Points won on return
30%
70%
1st-serve points won
69%
70%
2nd-serve points won
80%
31%
Points won returning 1st serve
30%
20%
Points won returning 2nd serve
30%
17%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
6
17
Service games
16
Stats by set

Set 1

49%
Points won
51%
71%
Points won on serve
70%
30%
Points won on return
29%
69%
1st-serve points won
64%
83%
2nd-serve points won
90%
36%
Points won returning 1st serve
31%
10%
Points won returning 2nd serve
17%
0%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
4
6
Service games
6

Set 2

53%
Points won
47%
63%
Points won on serve
67%
33%
Points won on return
37%
65%
1st-serve points won
69%
50%
2nd-serve points won
60%
31%
Points won returning 1st serve
35%
40%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
50%
Break points converted
0%
4
Longest run of points
4
5
Service games
4

Set 3

49%
Points won
51%
77%
Points won on serve
76%
24%
Points won on return
23%
77%
1st-serve points won
75%
0%
2nd-serve points won
80%
25%
Points won returning 1st serve
23%
20%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
0%
Break points converted
0%
4
Longest run of points
6
6
Service games
6

Point by point

Scores read Roglan / Aragon first, Moya / Leygue second.

188 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–7

Breaks 0–0

  1. 0–1

    Moya / Leygue serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Moya / Leygue serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–A
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Moya / Leygue serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Moya / Leygue serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Moya / Leygue serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  11. 5–6

    Moya / Leygue serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  12. 6–6

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  13. 6–7

    Moya / Leygue take it 8–6

    1. 0–1
    2. 1–1
    3. 2–1
    4. 2–2
    5. 2–3
    6. 3–3
    7. 3–4
    8. 4–4
    9. 5–4
    10. 6–4
    11. 6–5
    12. 6–6
    13. 6–7
    Tiebreak

Set 26–3

Breaks 1–0

  1. 1–0

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Moya / Leygue serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Moya / Leygue serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30BP
    Break
  5. 4–1

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Moya / Leygue serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–ABP
    10. 40–40
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Moya / Leygue serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  9. 6–3

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold

Set 36–7

Breaks 0–0

  1. 0–1

    Moya / Leygue serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Moya / Leygue serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 30–15
    6. 40–15
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Moya / Leygue serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Moya / Leygue serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–0
    3. 0–15
    4. 0–30
    5. 15–30
    6. 30–30
    7. 30–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Moya / Leygue serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  11. 5–6

    Moya / Leygue serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  12. 6–6

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  13. 6–7

    Moya / Leygue take it 7–5

    1. 0–1
    2. 1–1
    3. 1–2
    4. 1–3
    5. 1–4
    6. 2–4
    7. 3–4
    8. 3–5
    9. 3–6
    10. 4–6
    11. 5–6
    Tiebreak

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.