The Padel Brief

Round of 16WomenOctober 24, 2026

Carrascosa / Fernandez v Sanchez / Koek

C. CarrascosaM. Fernandez
Winner
66
A. SanchezM. Koek
11
Court 2 Nic00:52

Pre-match odds

Carrascosa / Fernandez

77%

Avg Elo 1496

Sanchez / Koek

23%

Avg Elo 1389

Elo gap 107

Carrascosa / Fernandez delivered as 77% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Carrascosa / FernandezSanchez / Koek

64%
Points won
36%
75%
Points won on serve
46%
54%
Points won on return
25%
74%
1st-serve points won
48%
83%
2nd-serve points won
33%
52%
Points won returning 1st serve
26%
67%
Points won returning 2nd serve
17%
62%
Break points converted
0%
7
Longest run of points
5
7
Service games
7
1
Double faults
0
Stats by set

Set 1

70%
Points won
30%
84%
Points won on serve
43%
57%
Points won on return
16%
88%
1st-serve points won
42%
50%
2nd-serve points won
50%
58%
Points won returning 1st serve
12%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
100%
Break points converted
0%
7
Longest run of points
2
4
Service games
3
1
Double faults
0

Set 2

58%
Points won
42%
67%
Points won on serve
48%
52%
Points won on return
33%
59%
1st-serve points won
52%
100%
2nd-serve points won
25%
48%
Points won returning 1st serve
41%
75%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
50%
Break points converted
0%
3
Longest run of points
5
3
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Carrascosa / Fernandez first, Sanchez / Koek second.

64 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–1

Breaks 2–0

  1. 1–0

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  2. 2–0

    Sanchez / Koek serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  3. 3–0

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  4. 4–0

    Sanchez / Koek serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    Break
  5. 5–0

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  6. 5–1

    Sanchez / Koek serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–40
    5. 40–A
    Hold
  7. 6–1

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold

Set 26–1

Breaks 3–0

  1. 0–1

    Sanchez / Koek serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Sanchez / Koek serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    10. 40–40
    Break
  4. 3–1

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Sanchez / Koek serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  6. 5–1

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    Hold
  7. 6–1

    Sanchez / Koek serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.