The Padel Brief

Round of 16WomenOctober 24, 2026

Santos / Perez v Marques / Ribeiro

C. SantosL. Perez
Winner
616
M. MarquesP. Ribeiro
462
Court 2 Nic01:47

Pre-match odds

Santos / Perez

65%

Avg Elo 1470

Marques / Ribeiro

35%

Avg Elo 1416

Elo gap 54

Santos / Perez delivered as 65% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Santos / PerezMarques / Ribeiro

50%
Points won
50%
56%
Points won on serve
56%
44%
Points won on return
44%
54%
1st-serve points won
56%
67%
2nd-serve points won
60%
44%
Points won returning 1st serve
46%
40%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
50%
Break points converted
44%
6
Longest run of points
8
12
Service games
13
Stats by set

Set 1

54%
Points won
46%
51%
Points won on serve
42%
58%
Points won on return
49%
48%
1st-serve points won
39%
67%
2nd-serve points won
67%
61%
Points won returning 1st serve
52%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
100%
Break points converted
40%
5
Longest run of points
4
5
Service games
5

Set 2

26%
Points won
74%
40%
Points won on serve
84%
16%
Points won on return
60%
38%
1st-serve points won
84%
50%
2nd-serve points won
0%
16%
Points won returning 1st serve
62%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
0%
Break points converted
100%
6
Longest run of points
8
3
Service games
4

Set 3

60%
Points won
40%
72%
Points won on serve
50%
50%
Points won on return
28%
71%
1st-serve points won
50%
75%
2nd-serve points won
50%
50%
Points won returning 1st serve
29%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
25%
29%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
6
4
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Santos / Perez first, Marques / Ribeiro second.

118 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–4

Breaks 3–2

  1. 0–1

    Marques / Ribeiro serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  2. 0–2

    Santos / Perez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  3. 1–2

    Marques / Ribeiro serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  4. 2–2

    Santos / Perez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    10. 40–40
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Marques / Ribeiro serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  6. 3–3

    Santos / Perez serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–40BP
    Break
  7. 3–4

    Marques / Ribeiro serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Santos / Perez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Marques / Ribeiro serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  10. 6–4

    Santos / Perez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold

Set 21–6

Breaks 0–2

  1. 0–1

    Marques / Ribeiro serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Santos / Perez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Marques / Ribeiro serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Santos / Perez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  5. 1–4

    Marques / Ribeiro serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  6. 1–5

    Santos / Perez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  7. 1–6

    Marques / Ribeiro serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    Hold

Set 36–2

Breaks 2–0

  1. 1–0

    Santos / Perez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  2. 2–0

    Marques / Ribeiro serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 0–0
    4. 15–0
    5. 30–0
    6. 30–15
    7. 40–15BP
    8. 40–30BP
    9. 40–40
    10. A–40BP
    Break
  3. 3–0

    Santos / Perez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Marques / Ribeiro serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Santos / Perez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–40
    5. 40–ABP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Marques / Ribeiro serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Santos / Perez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  8. 6–2

    Marques / Ribeiro serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.