The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalWomenOctober 25, 2026

Cortiles / Arellano v Carrascosa / Fernandez

A. CortilesM. Arellano
734
C. CarrascosaM. Fernandez
Winner
566
Court 2 Nic01:52

Pre-match odds

Cortiles / Arellano

53%

Avg Elo 1520

Carrascosa / Fernandez

47%

Avg Elo 1509

Elo gap 11

Carrascosa / Fernandez won a near coin flip (47%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Cortiles / ArellanoCarrascosa / Fernandez

49%
Points won
51%
61%
Points won on serve
61%
39%
Points won on return
39%
59%
1st-serve points won
61%
78%
2nd-serve points won
65%
39%
Points won returning 1st serve
41%
35%
Points won returning 2nd serve
22%
43%
Break points converted
33%
9
Longest run of points
8
15
Service games
16
0
Double faults
1
Stats by set

Set 1

56%
Points won
44%
69%
Points won on serve
58%
42%
Points won on return
31%
67%
1st-serve points won
52%
80%
2nd-serve points won
70%
48%
Points won returning 1st serve
33%
30%
Points won returning 2nd serve
20%
100%
Break points converted
50%
8
Longest run of points
4
6
Service games
6
0
Double faults
1

Set 2

44%
Points won
56%
48%
Points won on serve
61%
39%
Points won on return
52%
46%
1st-serve points won
62%
67%
2nd-serve points won
57%
38%
Points won returning 1st serve
54%
43%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
50%
Break points converted
22%
3
Longest run of points
6
4
Service games
5

Set 3

48%
Points won
52%
67%
Points won on serve
65%
35%
Points won on return
33%
65%
1st-serve points won
65%
100%
2nd-serve points won
67%
35%
Points won returning 1st serve
35%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
0%
Break points converted
100%
4
Longest run of points
8
5
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Cortiles / Arellano first, Carrascosa / Fernandez second.

133 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 17–5

Breaks 2–1

  1. 0–1

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Cortiles / Arellano serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Cortiles / Arellano serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Cortiles / Arellano serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40BP
    4. 30–40BP
    Break
  7. 2–5

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Cortiles / Arellano serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  10. 5–5

    Cortiles / Arellano serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  11. 6–5

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  12. 7–5

    Cortiles / Arellano serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold

Set 23–6

Breaks 1–2

  1. 0–1

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    Hold
  2. 0–2

    Cortiles / Arellano serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–ABP
    Break
  3. 0–3

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Cortiles / Arellano serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  5. 1–4

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Cortiles / Arellano serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    7. 40–40
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  8. 3–5

    Cortiles / Arellano serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    Break
  9. 3–6

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 30–30
    3. 40–40
    4. 40–A
    Hold

Set 34–6

Breaks 0–1

  1. 1–0

    Cortiles / Arellano serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–30
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–15
    4. 0–30
    5. 0–40
    6. 15–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Cortiles / Arellano serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Cortiles / Arellano serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 40–15
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    10. 40–40
    11. 40–A
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Cortiles / Arellano serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Cortiles / Arellano serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    Break
  10. 4–6

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.