The Padel Brief

Round of 64MenOctober 25, 2026

Castaño / Hernandez v Roglan / Aragon

M. CastañoP. Hernandez
Winner
66
A. RoglanM. Aragon
43
Court 2 Nic01:22

Pre-match odds

Castaño / Hernandez

79%

Avg Elo 1657

Roglan / Aragon

21%

Avg Elo 1542

Elo gap 115

Castaño / Hernandez delivered as 79% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Castaño / HernandezRoglan / Aragon

55%
Points won
45%
63%
Points won on serve
51%
49%
Points won on return
37%
67%
1st-serve points won
53%
44%
2nd-serve points won
29%
47%
Points won returning 1st serve
33%
71%
Points won returning 2nd serve
56%
45%
Break points converted
40%
5
Longest run of points
5
9
Service games
10
Stats by set

Set 1

54%
Points won
46%
62%
Points won on serve
53%
47%
Points won on return
38%
65%
1st-serve points won
55%
50%
2nd-serve points won
33%
45%
Points won returning 1st serve
35%
67%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
50%
Break points converted
25%
4
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
5

Set 2

56%
Points won
44%
64%
Points won on serve
49%
51%
Points won on return
36%
68%
1st-serve points won
52%
33%
2nd-serve points won
25%
48%
Points won returning 1st serve
32%
75%
Points won returning 2nd serve
67%
43%
Break points converted
100%
4
Longest run of points
3
4
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Castaño / Hernandez first, Roglan / Aragon second.

119 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–4

Breaks 2–1

  1. 0–1

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 15–30
    6. 15–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 15–30
    6. 30–30
    7. 15–30
    8. 30–30
    9. 30–40
    10. 30–30
    11. 30–40
    12. 30–30
    13. 30–40
    14. 40–40
    15. A–40BP
    Break
  4. 2–2

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 40–40
    2. 40–ABP
    Break
  5. 2–3

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–15
    6. 30–30
    7. 40–30
    8. 30–30
    9. 40–30
    10. 30–30
    11. 40–30
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    10. 40–40
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  10. 6–4

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    Hold

Set 26–3

Breaks 3–1

  1. 0–1

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–30
    3. 30–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 0–30
    5. 15–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 30–40
    8. 40–40
    9. 30–40
    10. 40–40
    11. A–40BP
    12. 40–40
    13. A–40BP
    14. 40–40
    Break
  6. 4–2

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    10. 40–40
    Break
  8. 5–3

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    Break
  9. 6–3

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.