The Padel Brief

Round of 64MenOctober 25, 2026

Cepero / Fernandez v Moragues / Fonteny

A. CeperoA. Fernandez
24
N. MoraguesT. Fonteny
Winner
66
Court 3 Volvo01:03

Pre-match odds

Cepero / Fernandez

37%

Avg Elo 1565

Moragues / Fonteny

63%

Avg Elo 1611

Elo gap 46

Moragues / Fonteny delivered as 63% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Cepero / FernandezMoragues / Fonteny

42%
Points won
58%
54%
Points won on serve
71%
29%
Points won on return
46%
55%
1st-serve points won
73%
50%
2nd-serve points won
50%
27%
Points won returning 1st serve
45%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
33%
Break points converted
67%
7
Longest run of points
8
9
Service games
9
Stats by set

Set 1

39%
Points won
61%
52%
Points won on serve
80%
20%
Points won on return
48%
50%
1st-serve points won
79%
100%
2nd-serve points won
100%
21%
Points won returning 1st serve
50%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
0%
Break points converted
67%
3
Longest run of points
7
4
Service games
4

Set 2

46%
Points won
54%
57%
Points won on serve
66%
34%
Points won on return
43%
61%
1st-serve points won
69%
40%
2nd-serve points won
33%
31%
Points won returning 1st serve
39%
67%
Points won returning 2nd serve
60%
33%
Break points converted
67%
7
Longest run of points
7
5
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Cepero / Fernandez first, Moragues / Fonteny second.

83 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 12–6

Breaks 0–2

  1. 0–1

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 15–30
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Cepero / Fernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Cepero / Fernandez serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–40
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Cepero / Fernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  7. 2–5

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  8. 2–6

    Cepero / Fernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    7. 40–40
    Break

Set 24–6

Breaks 1–2

  1. 0–1

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 0–15
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Cepero / Fernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 0–30
    5. 15–30
    6. 30–30
    7. 15–30
    8. 30–30
    9. 15–30
    10. 30–30
    11. 40–30
    12. 40–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–0
    3. 15–15
    4. 30–15
    5. 40–15BP
    6. 40–30BP
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–A
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Cepero / Fernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 0–30
    5. 15–40BP
    Break
  5. 2–3

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    Break
  6. 3–3

    Cepero / Fernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Cepero / Fernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  10. 4–6

    Cepero / Fernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.