The Padel Brief

Round of 64MenOctober 25, 2026

Rodriguez / Garcia v Fdz Lancha / Diestro

A. RodriguezP. Garcia
603
A. Fdz LanchaJ. Diestro
Winner
466
Court 3 Volvo01:39

Pre-match odds

Rodriguez / Garcia

43%

Avg Elo 1585

Fdz Lancha / Diestro

57%

Avg Elo 1609

Elo gap 24

Fdz Lancha / Diestro delivered as 57% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Rodriguez / GarciaFdz Lancha / Diestro

43%
Points won
57%
56%
Points won on serve
69%
31%
Points won on return
44%
58%
1st-serve points won
70%
38%
2nd-serve points won
62%
30%
Points won returning 1st serve
42%
38%
Points won returning 2nd serve
62%
100%
Break points converted
45%
5
Longest run of points
9
12
Service games
13
Stats by set

Set 1

56%
Points won
44%
78%
Points won on serve
63%
37%
Points won on return
22%
83%
1st-serve points won
64%
33%
2nd-serve points won
50%
36%
Points won returning 1st serve
17%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
67%
100%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
4
5
Service games
5

Set 2

22%
Points won
78%
32%
Points won on serve
92%
8%
Points won on return
68%
28%
1st-serve points won
92%
100%
2nd-serve points won
100%
8%
Points won returning 1st serve
72%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
0%
Break points converted
50%
3
Longest run of points
9
3
Service games
3

Set 3

42%
Points won
58%
50%
Points won on serve
65%
35%
Points won on return
50%
56%
1st-serve points won
65%
25%
2nd-serve points won
60%
35%
Points won returning 1st serve
44%
40%
Points won returning 2nd serve
75%
100%
Break points converted
67%
3
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Rodriguez / Garcia first, Fdz Lancha / Diestro second.

112 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–4

Breaks 1–0

  1. 0–1

    Fdz Lancha / Diestro serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Rodriguez / Garcia serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–15
    5. 15–30
    6. 15–40BP
    7. 30–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Fdz Lancha / Diestro serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Rodriguez / Garcia serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Fdz Lancha / Diestro serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Rodriguez / Garcia serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Fdz Lancha / Diestro serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  8. 5–3

    Rodriguez / Garcia serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Fdz Lancha / Diestro serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  10. 6–4

    Rodriguez / Garcia serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Hold

Set 20–6

Breaks 0–3

  1. 0–1

    Fdz Lancha / Diestro serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  2. 0–2

    Rodriguez / Garcia serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–30
    3. 30–40BP
    Break
  3. 0–3

    Fdz Lancha / Diestro serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  4. 0–4

    Rodriguez / Garcia serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  5. 0–5

    Fdz Lancha / Diestro serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  6. 0–6

    Rodriguez / Garcia serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break

Set 33–6

Breaks 1–2

  1. 0–1

    Fdz Lancha / Diestro serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  2. 0–2

    Rodriguez / Garcia serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  3. 1–2

    Fdz Lancha / Diestro serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    Break
  4. 1–3

    Rodriguez / Garcia serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  5. 1–4

    Fdz Lancha / Diestro serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Rodriguez / Garcia serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  7. 2–5

    Fdz Lancha / Diestro serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Rodriguez / Garcia serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  9. 3–6

    Fdz Lancha / Diestro serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.