The Padel Brief

Round of 64MenOctober 25, 2026

Sanchez / Gutierrez v Axelsson / Ortega

M. SanchezS. Gutierrez
663
A. AxelssonM. Ortega
Winner
476
Court 1 Alghanim02:23

Pre-match odds

Upset
Sanchez / Gutierrez

82%

Avg Elo 1742

Axelsson / Ortega

18%

Avg Elo 1609

Elo gap 133

Axelsson / Ortega won with a 18% chance — about 1 in 6.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Sanchez / GutierrezAxelsson / Ortega

51%
Points won
49%
62%
Points won on serve
59%
41%
Points won on return
38%
66%
1st-serve points won
59%
40%
2nd-serve points won
60%
41%
Points won returning 1st serve
34%
40%
Points won returning 2nd serve
60%
24%
Break points converted
62%
7
Longest run of points
8
16
Service games
15
0
Double faults
1
Stats by set

Set 1

54%
Points won
46%
69%
Points won on serve
61%
39%
Points won on return
31%
72%
1st-serve points won
58%
33%
2nd-serve points won
100%
42%
Points won returning 1st serve
28%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
67%
25%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
5

Set 2

51%
Points won
49%
62%
Points won on serve
58%
42%
Points won on return
38%
65%
1st-serve points won
58%
50%
2nd-serve points won
60%
42%
Points won returning 1st serve
35%
40%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
25%
Break points converted
50%
7
Longest run of points
4
6
Service games
6

Set 3

47%
Points won
53%
54%
Points won on serve
59%
41%
Points won on return
46%
58%
1st-serve points won
62%
25%
2nd-serve points won
33%
38%
Points won returning 1st serve
42%
67%
Points won returning 2nd serve
75%
20%
Break points converted
100%
6
Longest run of points
8
5
Service games
4
0
Double faults
1

Point by point

Scores read Sanchez / Gutierrez first, Axelsson / Ortega second.

175 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–4

Breaks 1–0

  1. 0–1

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Sanchez / Gutierrez serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Sanchez / Gutierrez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    10. 40–40
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  6. 4–2

    Sanchez / Gutierrez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    10. 40–40
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Sanchez / Gutierrez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    Hold
  10. 6–4

    Sanchez / Gutierrez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold

Set 26–7

Breaks 2–2

  1. 0–1

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–30
    2. 30–30
    3. 40–30BP
    4. 40–40
    5. 40–A
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  2. 0–2

    Sanchez / Gutierrez serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–ABP
    Break
  3. 1–2

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    Break
  4. 2–2

    Sanchez / Gutierrez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 15–15
    5. 30–15
    6. 40–15BP
    7. 40–30BP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    10. 40–40
    11. 40–A
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Sanchez / Gutierrez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    Break
  7. 3–4

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    10. 40–40
    Break
  8. 4–4

    Sanchez / Gutierrez serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Sanchez / Gutierrez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  11. 5–6

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  12. 6–6

    Sanchez / Gutierrez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  13. 6–7

    Axelsson / Ortega take it 9–7

    1. 1–0
    2. 2–0
    3. 5–1
    4. 5–2
    5. 5–3
    6. 5–4
    7. 5–5
    8. 6–5
    9. 6–6
    10. 7–6
    11. 7–7
    12. 7–8
    Tiebreak

Set 33–6

Breaks 1–3

  1. 0–1

    Sanchez / Gutierrez serving

    1. 30–30
    2. 30–40BP
    Break
  2. 0–2

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40BP
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–A
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Sanchez / Gutierrez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  5. 3–2

    Sanchez / Gutierrez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    10. 40–40
    11. 40–A
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Sanchez / Gutierrez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    Break
  8. 3–5

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  9. 3–6

    Sanchez / Gutierrez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.