The Padel Brief

Round of 32MenOctober 27, 2026

Goenaga / Collado v Garrido / De Pascual

E. GoenagaG. Collado
Winner
67
J. GarridoJ. De Pascual
26
Court 3 Volvo01:38

Pre-match odds

Upset
Goenaga / Collado

21%

Avg Elo 1623

Garrido / De Pascual

79%

Avg Elo 1739

Elo gap 117

Goenaga / Collado won with a 21% chance — about 1 in 5.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Goenaga / ColladoGarrido / De Pascual

53%
Points won
47%
58%
Points won on serve
53%
47%
Points won on return
42%
54%
1st-serve points won
56%
88%
2nd-serve points won
38%
44%
Points won returning 1st serve
46%
62%
Points won returning 2nd serve
12%
100%
Break points converted
29%
6
Longest run of points
7
10
Service games
10
Stats by set

Set 1

60%
Points won
40%
67%
Points won on serve
48%
52%
Points won on return
33%
67%
1st-serve points won
53%
67%
2nd-serve points won
0%
47%
Points won returning 1st serve
33%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
100%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
4

Set 2

49%
Points won
51%
53%
Points won on serve
56%
44%
Points won on return
47%
48%
1st-serve points won
58%
100%
2nd-serve points won
50%
42%
Points won returning 1st serve
52%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
100%
Break points converted
40%
6
Longest run of points
7
6
Service games
6

Point by point

Scores read Goenaga / Collado first, Garrido / De Pascual second.

103 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–2

Breaks 2–0

  1. 0–1

    Garrido / De Pascual serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Goenaga / Collado serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Garrido / De Pascual serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Goenaga / Collado serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Garrido / De Pascual serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  6. 4–2

    Goenaga / Collado serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Garrido / De Pascual serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  8. 6–2

    Goenaga / Collado serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–ABP
    10. 40–40
    Hold

Set 27–6

Breaks 2–2

  1. 1–0

    Garrido / De Pascual serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Goenaga / Collado serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Garrido / De Pascual serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Goenaga / Collado serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break
  5. 3–2

    Garrido / De Pascual serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  6. 3–3

    Goenaga / Collado serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  7. 3–4

    Garrido / De Pascual serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Goenaga / Collado serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Garrido / De Pascual serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Goenaga / Collado serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  11. 5–6

    Garrido / De Pascual serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  12. 6–6

    Goenaga / Collado serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  13. 7–6

    Goenaga / Collado take it 7–3

    1. 1–0
    2. 1–1
    3. 2–1
    4. 2–2
    5. 3–2
    6. 4–2
    7. 4–3
    8. 5–3
    9. 6–3
    Tiebreak

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.