The Padel Brief

Round of 32MenOctober 27, 2026

Bautista / Bergamini v Capra / Sanchez

J. BautistaL. Bergamini
Winner
76
L. CapraM. Sanchez
63
Court 2 Nic01:27

Pre-match odds

Bautista / Bergamini

88%

Avg Elo 1781

Capra / Sanchez

12%

Avg Elo 1609

Elo gap 173

Bautista / Bergamini delivered as 88% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Bautista / BergaminiCapra / Sanchez

56%
Points won
44%
70%
Points won on serve
55%
45%
Points won on return
30%
69%
1st-serve points won
54%
80%
2nd-serve points won
75%
46%
Points won returning 1st serve
31%
25%
Points won returning 2nd serve
20%
57%
Break points converted
33%
9
Longest run of points
5
10
Service games
11
Stats by set

Set 1

53%
Points won
47%
72%
Points won on serve
64%
36%
Points won on return
28%
73%
1st-serve points won
63%
67%
2nd-serve points won
75%
37%
Points won returning 1st serve
27%
25%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
33%
Break points converted
33%
5
Longest run of points
5
6
Service games
6

Set 2

62%
Points won
38%
67%
Points won on serve
42%
58%
Points won on return
33%
64%
1st-serve points won
42%
100%
2nd-serve points won
0%
58%
Points won returning 1st serve
36%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
75%
Break points converted
33%
8
Longest run of points
5
4
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Bautista / Bergamini first, Capra / Sanchez second.

111 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 17–6

Breaks 1–1

  1. 1–0

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Capra / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Capra / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    Break
  5. 3–2

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 15–40BP
    7. 30–40BP
    Break
  6. 3–3

    Capra / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    10. 40–40
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Capra / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 0–30
    5. 0–40
    6. 15–40
    7. 30–40
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–ABP
    7. 40–40
    8. A–40
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Capra / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–15
    5. 15–30
    6. 15–40
    7. 30–40
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    Hold
  11. 6–5

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 30–15
    2. 40–15
    Hold
  12. 6–6

    Capra / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  13. 7–6

    Bautista / Bergamini take it 7–5

    1. 1–0
    2. 2–0
    3. 3–0
    4. 4–0
    5. 5–0
    6. 5–1
    7. 5–2
    8. 6–2
    9. 6–3
    10. 6–4
    11. 6–5
    Tiebreak

Set 26–3

Breaks 3–1

  1. 1–0

    Capra / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Capra / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Capra / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40BP
    Break
  6. 4–2

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–ABP
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–ABP
    Break
  7. 4–3

    Capra / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  9. 6–3

    Capra / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.