The Padel Brief

Round of 32MenOctober 26, 2026

Castaño / Hernandez v Arroyo / Jimenez

M. CastañoP. Hernandez
Winner
66
A. ArroyoJ. Jimenez
33
Court 3 Volvo01:05

Pre-match odds

Castaño / Hernandez

45%

Avg Elo 1666

Arroyo / Jimenez

55%

Avg Elo 1685

Elo gap 19

Castaño / Hernandez won as slight underdogs (45%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Castaño / HernandezArroyo / Jimenez

58%
Points won
42%
75%
Points won on serve
55%
45%
Points won on return
25%
76%
1st-serve points won
55%
67%
2nd-serve points won
57%
45%
Points won returning 1st serve
24%
43%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
50%
Break points converted
100%
6
Longest run of points
5
9
Service games
9
Stats by set

Set 1

56%
Points won
44%
69%
Points won on serve
55%
45%
Points won on return
31%
72%
1st-serve points won
52%
50%
2nd-serve points won
75%
48%
Points won returning 1st serve
28%
25%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
33%
Break points converted
100%
5
Longest run of points
4
5
Service games
4

Set 2

59%
Points won
41%
84%
Points won on serve
56%
44%
Points won on return
16%
82%
1st-serve points won
59%
100%
2nd-serve points won
33%
41%
Points won returning 1st serve
18%
67%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
100%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
5
4
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Castaño / Hernandez first, Arroyo / Jimenez second.

88 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–3

Breaks 2–1

  1. 0–1

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 30–15
    2. 40–30
    3. 40–40
    4. A–40
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–ABP
    Break
  2. 1–1

    Arroyo / Jimenez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    Break
  3. 2–1

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Arroyo / Jimenez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Arroyo / Jimenez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Arroyo / Jimenez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    Break
  9. 6–3

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold

Set 26–3

Breaks 2–0

  1. 0–1

    Arroyo / Jimenez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 0–15
    4. 15–15
    5. 15–30
    6. 30–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Arroyo / Jimenez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Arroyo / Jimenez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Arroyo / Jimenez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  8. 5–3

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 0–0
    3. 15–0
    4. 30–0
    Hold
  9. 6–3

    Arroyo / Jimenez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.