The Padel Brief

Round of 32MenOctober 26, 2026

Alfonso / Libaak v Moragues / Fonteny

G. AlfonsoT. Libaak
Winner
66
N. MoraguesT. Fonteny
20
Court 1 Alghanim00:50

Pre-match odds

Alfonso / Libaak

90%

Avg Elo 1815

Moragues / Fonteny

10%

Avg Elo 1628

Elo gap 188

Alfonso / Libaak delivered as 90% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Alfonso / LibaakMoragues / Fonteny

61%
Points won
39%
70%
Points won on serve
47%
53%
Points won on return
30%
68%
1st-serve points won
47%
80%
2nd-serve points won
50%
53%
Points won returning 1st serve
32%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
20%
71%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
4
7
Service games
7
Stats by set

Set 1

58%
Points won
42%
69%
Points won on serve
54%
46%
Points won on return
31%
64%
1st-serve points won
52%
100%
2nd-serve points won
67%
48%
Points won returning 1st serve
36%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
67%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
4

Set 2

65%
Points won
35%
71%
Points won on serve
39%
61%
Points won on return
29%
75%
1st-serve points won
41%
0%
2nd-serve points won
0%
59%
Points won returning 1st serve
25%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
75%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
3
3
Service games
3

Point by point

Scores read Alfonso / Libaak first, Moragues / Fonteny second.

70 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published. Point capture for this match was incomplete.

Set 16–2

Breaks 2–0

  1. 0–1

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Alfonso / Libaak serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Alfonso / Libaak serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 15–0
    4. 30–0
    5. 40–15BP
    Break
  6. 4–2

    Alfonso / Libaak serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 30–40
    3. 40–40
    4. 40–A
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40BP
    7. 40–40
    8. A–40BP
    9. 40–40
    Break
  8. 6–2

    Alfonso / Libaak serving

    1. 15–30
    2. 30–30
    3. 40–40
    Hold

Set 25–0

Breaks 3–0

  1. 1–0

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Alfonso / Libaak serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    Hold
  3. 3–0

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 0–0
    3. 15–0
    4. 30–0
    5. 30–15
    6. 30–30
    7. 30–40
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    10. 40–40
    11. 40–A
    12. 40–40
    Break
  4. 4–0

    Alfonso / Libaak serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  5. 5–0

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    Break
  6. 5–0

    Alfonso / Libaak serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    —

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.