The Padel Brief

Round of 32MenOctober 26, 2026

Mouriño / Quilez v Guerrero / Leal

F. MouriñoM. Quilez
173
F. GuerreroJ. Leal
Winner
666
Center Court Bnk02:05

Pre-match odds

Mouriño / Quilez

10%

Avg Elo 1643

Guerrero / Leal

90%

Avg Elo 1837

Elo gap 194

Guerrero / Leal delivered as 90% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Mouriño / QuilezGuerrero / Leal

43%
Points won
57%
59%
Points won on serve
73%
27%
Points won on return
41%
59%
1st-serve points won
75%
60%
2nd-serve points won
64%
25%
Points won returning 1st serve
41%
36%
Points won returning 2nd serve
40%
50%
Break points converted
44%
6
Longest run of points
10
13
Service games
15
Stats by set

Set 1

33%
Points won
67%
50%
Points won on serve
84%
16%
Points won on return
50%
43%
1st-serve points won
87%
67%
2nd-serve points won
75%
13%
Points won returning 1st serve
57%
25%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
0%
Break points converted
50%
4
Longest run of points
9
3
Service games
4

Set 2

49%
Points won
51%
60%
Points won on serve
63%
37%
Points won on return
40%
63%
1st-serve points won
66%
50%
2nd-serve points won
50%
34%
Points won returning 1st serve
37%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
50%
Break points converted
33%
6
Longest run of points
10
6
Service games
6

Set 3

41%
Points won
59%
64%
Points won on serve
83%
17%
Points won on return
36%
63%
1st-serve points won
82%
67%
2nd-serve points won
100%
18%
Points won returning 1st serve
37%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
0%
Break points converted
50%
5
Longest run of points
6
4
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Mouriño / Quilez first, Guerrero / Leal second.

138 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 11–6

Breaks 0–2

  1. 0–1

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Mouriño / Quilez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 0–30
    5. 0–40
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Mouriño / Quilez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  5. 1–4

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  6. 1–5

    Mouriño / Quilez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–ABP
    7. 40–40
    Break
  7. 1–6

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold

Set 27–6

Breaks 1–1

  1. 1–0

    Mouriño / Quilez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–ABP
    10. 40–40
    11. A–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Mouriño / Quilez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Mouriño / Quilez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Mouriño / Quilez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    Break
  8. 3–5

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Mouriño / Quilez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    Break
  11. 6–5

    Mouriño / Quilez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    Hold
  12. 6–6

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  13. 7–6

    Mouriño / Quilez take it 7–4

    1. 0–1
    2. 1–1
    3. 2–1
    4. 3–1
    5. 4–1
    6. 5–1
    7. 6–1
    8. 6–2
    9. 6–3
    10. 6–4
    Tiebreak

Set 33–6

Breaks 0–1

  1. 0–1

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Mouriño / Quilez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Mouriño / Quilez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Mouriño / Quilez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Mouriño / Quilez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break
  9. 3–6

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.