The Padel Brief

Round of 32MenOctober 27, 2026

Tello / Arce v Axelsson / Ortega

J. TelloM. Arce
Winner
646
A. AxelssonM. Ortega
463
Court 1 Alghanim01:53

Pre-match odds

Tello / Arce

83%

Avg Elo 1767

Axelsson / Ortega

17%

Avg Elo 1631

Elo gap 136

Tello / Arce delivered as 83% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Tello / ArceAxelsson / Ortega

51%
Points won
49%
60%
Points won on serve
57%
43%
Points won on return
40%
61%
1st-serve points won
55%
50%
2nd-serve points won
75%
45%
Points won returning 1st serve
39%
25%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
71%
Break points converted
43%
4
Longest run of points
5
14
Service games
15
Stats by set

Set 1

55%
Points won
45%
62%
Points won on serve
52%
48%
Points won on return
38%
60%
1st-serve points won
48%
75%
2nd-serve points won
75%
52%
Points won returning 1st serve
40%
25%
Points won returning 2nd serve
25%
100%
Break points converted
50%
4
Longest run of points
3
5
Service games
5

Set 2

45%
Points won
55%
53%
Points won on serve
62%
38%
Points won on return
47%
57%
1st-serve points won
62%
0%
2nd-serve points won
67%
38%
Points won returning 1st serve
43%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
50%
Break points converted
50%
4
Longest run of points
4
5
Service games
5

Set 3

54%
Points won
46%
66%
Points won on serve
56%
44%
Points won on return
34%
68%
1st-serve points won
55%
50%
2nd-serve points won
100%
45%
Points won returning 1st serve
32%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
67%
Break points converted
0%
4
Longest run of points
3
4
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Tello / Arce first, Axelsson / Ortega second.

142 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published. The feed had gaps during this match, so some games are missing.

Set 16–4

Breaks 1–1

  1. 2–0

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 40–40
    5. A–40
    Hold
  2. 2–1

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  3. 2–2

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  4. 3–2

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  5. 4–2

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  6. 4–3

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  7. 5–3

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  8. 5–4

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  9. 6–4

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    Hold

Set 24–6

Breaks 1–2

  1. 1–0

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30BP
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 0–0
    3. 15–15
    4. 30–15
    5. 30–30
    6. 40–30
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–30
    2. 15–40
    3. 30–40
    4. 40–40
    5. 40–A
    6. 40–40
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–0
    4. 15–15
    5. 15–30
    6. 30–30
    7. 15–30
    8. 30–30
    9. 30–40BP
    Break
  7. 3–4

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 0–15
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  10. 4–6

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 15–40BP
    7. 30–40BP
    8. 15–40BP
    9. 30–40BP
    10. 40–40
    11. 40–ABP
    Break

Set 36–3

Breaks 2–0

  1. 0–1

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    10. 40–40
    11. A–40
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  6. 4–2

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 0–30
    5. 0–40
    6. 15–40
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  9. 6–3

    Axelsson / Ortega serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.