The Padel Brief

Round of 16MenOctober 28, 2026

Navarro / Di Nenno v Castaño / Hernandez

F. NavarroM. Di Nenno
Winner
66
M. CastañoP. Hernandez
30
Court 1 Alghanim01:03

Pre-match odds

Navarro / Di Nenno

82%

Avg Elo 1825

Castaño / Hernandez

18%

Avg Elo 1692

Elo gap 133

Navarro / Di Nenno delivered as 82% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Navarro / Di NennoCastaño / Hernandez

66%
Points won
34%
70%
Points won on serve
39%
61%
Points won on return
30%
79%
1st-serve points won
45%
40%
2nd-serve points won
14%
55%
Points won returning 1st serve
21%
86%
Points won returning 2nd serve
60%
83%
Break points converted
33%
9
Longest run of points
7
8
Service games
7
Stats by set

Set 1

60%
Points won
40%
70%
Points won on serve
52%
48%
Points won on return
30%
80%
1st-serve points won
59%
43%
2nd-serve points won
25%
41%
Points won returning 1st serve
20%
75%
Points won returning 2nd serve
57%
67%
Break points converted
33%
6
Longest run of points
7
5
Service games
4

Set 2

75%
Points won
25%
71%
Points won on serve
20%
80%
Points won on return
29%
79%
1st-serve points won
25%
33%
2nd-serve points won
0%
75%
Points won returning 1st serve
21%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
67%
100%
Break points converted
0%
9
Longest run of points
1
3
Service games
3

Point by point

Scores read Navarro / Di Nenno first, Castaño / Hernandez second.

65 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–3

Breaks 2–1

  1. 1–0

    Navarro / Di Nenno serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Navarro / Di Nenno serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  4. 2–2

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  5. 3–2

    Navarro / Di Nenno serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  7. 5–2

    Navarro / Di Nenno serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  9. 6–3

    Navarro / Di Nenno serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold

Set 26–0

Breaks 3–0

  1. 1–0

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Navarro / Di Nenno serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  3. 3–0

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Break
  4. 4–0

    Navarro / Di Nenno serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  5. 5–0

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  6. 6–0

    Navarro / Di Nenno serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 0–0
    3. 15–0
    4. 15–15
    5. 30–15
    6. 40–15
    7. 40–30
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.