The Padel Brief

Round of 16MenOctober 28, 2026

Goñi / Alonso v Guerrero / Leal

A. GoñiE. Alonso
Winner
66
F. GuerreroJ. Leal
44
Court 1 Alghanim01:14

Pre-match odds

Upset
Goñi / Alonso

23%

Avg Elo 1736

Guerrero / Leal

77%

Avg Elo 1842

Elo gap 106

Goñi / Alonso won with a 23% chance — about 1 in 4.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Goñi / AlonsoGuerrero / Leal

54%
Points won
46%
66%
Points won on serve
60%
40%
Points won on return
34%
67%
1st-serve points won
60%
64%
2nd-serve points won
60%
40%
Points won returning 1st serve
33%
40%
Points won returning 2nd serve
36%
60%
Break points converted
20%
7
Longest run of points
7
10
Service games
10
Stats by set

Set 1

54%
Points won
46%
62%
Points won on serve
56%
44%
Points won on return
38%
62%
1st-serve points won
60%
57%
2nd-serve points won
0%
40%
Points won returning 1st serve
38%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
43%
50%
Break points converted
20%
5
Longest run of points
7
5
Service games
5

Set 2

54%
Points won
46%
72%
Points won on serve
64%
36%
Points won on return
28%
72%
1st-serve points won
60%
75%
2nd-serve points won
100%
40%
Points won returning 1st serve
28%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
25%
100%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
4
5
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Goñi / Alonso first, Guerrero / Leal second.

97 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–4

Breaks 2–1

  1. 0–1

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  4. 2–2

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    7. 40–40
    8. A–40
    Break
  5. 3–2

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  6. 4–2

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40BP
    7. 40–40
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  10. 6–4

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold

Set 26–4

Breaks 1–0

  1. 0–1

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15BP
    Break
  6. 4–2

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  10. 6–4

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  11. 6–4

    Goñi / Alonso serving

      —

    The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.