The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalMenOctober 29, 2026

Navarro / Di Nenno v Alfonso / Libaak

F. NavarroM. Di Nenno
61
G. AlfonsoT. Libaak
Winner
76
Center Court Bnk01:29

Pre-match odds

Navarro / Di Nenno

45%

Avg Elo 1835

Alfonso / Libaak

55%

Avg Elo 1853

Elo gap 19

Alfonso / Libaak delivered as 55% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Navarro / Di NennoAlfonso / Libaak

42%
Points won
58%
57%
Points won on serve
73%
27%
Points won on return
43%
53%
1st-serve points won
73%
75%
2nd-serve points won
75%
27%
Points won returning 1st serve
47%
25%
Points won returning 2nd serve
25%
0%
Break points converted
100%
6
Longest run of points
10
10
Service games
9
Stats by set

Set 1

47%
Points won
53%
69%
Points won on serve
78%
22%
Points won on return
31%
64%
1st-serve points won
77%
89%
2nd-serve points won
100%
23%
Points won returning 1st serve
36%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
11%
0%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
5
6
Service games
6

Set 2

34%
Points won
66%
35%
Points won on serve
67%
33%
Points won on return
65%
35%
1st-serve points won
67%
33%
2nd-serve points won
67%
33%
Points won returning 1st serve
65%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
67%
0%
Break points converted
100%
3
Longest run of points
10
4
Service games
3

Point by point

Scores read Navarro / Di Nenno first, Alfonso / Libaak second.

103 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published. Point capture for this match was incomplete.

Set 16–7

Breaks 0–0

  1. 0–1

    Alfonso / Libaak serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Navarro / Di Nenno serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    10. 40–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Alfonso / Libaak serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Navarro / Di Nenno serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Alfonso / Libaak serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Navarro / Di Nenno serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 30–0
    5. 40–0
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Alfonso / Libaak serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Navarro / Di Nenno serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Alfonso / Libaak serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Navarro / Di Nenno serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  11. 5–6

    Alfonso / Libaak serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  12. 6–6

    Navarro / Di Nenno serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  13. 6–7

    Alfonso / Libaak take it 7–5

    1. 1–0
    2. 2–0
    3. 3–0
    4. 3–1
    5. 4–1
    6. 4–2
    7. 5–2
    8. 5–3
    9. 5–4
    10. 5–5
    11. 5–6
    Tiebreak

Set 21–6

Breaks 0–3

  1. 0–1

    Navarro / Di Nenno serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  2. 0–2

    Alfonso / Libaak serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–A
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Navarro / Di Nenno serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Alfonso / Libaak serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    Hold
  5. 1–4

    Navarro / Di Nenno serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    Break
  6. 1–5

    Alfonso / Libaak serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  7. 1–6

    Navarro / Di Nenno serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  8. 1–6

    Navarro / Di Nenno serving

      —

    The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.