The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalMenOctober 29, 2026

Stupaczuk / Sanz v Goñi / Alonso

F. StupaczukJ. Sanz
12
A. GoñiE. Alonso
Winner
66
Center Court Bnk00:52

Pre-match odds

Upset
Stupaczuk / Sanz

89%

Avg Elo 1944

Goñi / Alonso

11%

Avg Elo 1766

Elo gap 178

Goñi / Alonso won with a 11% chance — about 1 in 9.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Stupaczuk / SanzGoñi / Alonso

29%
Points won
71%
35%
Points won on serve
78%
22%
Points won on return
65%
34%
1st-serve points won
77%
50%
2nd-serve points won
100%
23%
Points won returning 1st serve
66%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
100%
Break points converted
62%
4
Longest run of points
16
7
Service games
8
Stats by set

Set 1

30%
Points won
70%
44%
Points won on serve
84%
16%
Points won on return
56%
44%
1st-serve points won
83%
50%
2nd-serve points won
100%
17%
Points won returning 1st serve
56%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
0%
Break points converted
67%
2
Longest run of points
6
3
Service games
4

Set 2

28%
Points won
72%
27%
Points won on serve
71%
29%
Points won on return
73%
27%
1st-serve points won
71%
0%
2nd-serve points won
0%
29%
Points won returning 1st serve
73%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
100%
Break points converted
60%
4
Longest run of points
16
4
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Stupaczuk / Sanz first, Goñi / Alonso second.

37 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published. The feed had gaps during this match, so some games are missing.

Set 11–6

Breaks 0–2

  1. 0–1

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Stupaczuk / Sanz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Stupaczuk / Sanz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break
  5. 1–4

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  6. 1–5

    Stupaczuk / Sanz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    Break
  7. 1–6

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold

Set 22–6

Breaks 0–1

  1. 1–0

    Stupaczuk / Sanz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 15–30
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Stupaczuk / Sanz serving

      Break
    1. 1–2

      Goñi / Alonso serving

      1. 15–0
      2. 30–0

      2 games not captured

      —
    2. 2–4

      Stupaczuk / Sanz serving

      1. 0–15

      1 game not captured

      —

    The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.