The Padel Brief

SemifinalMenOctober 30, 2026

Goñi / Alonso v Tello / Arce

A. GoñiE. Alonso
43
J. TelloM. Arce
Winner
66
Center Court Bnk01:19

Pre-match odds

Goñi / Alonso

56%

Avg Elo 1815

Tello / Arce

44%

Avg Elo 1793

Elo gap 22

Tello / Arce won as slight underdogs (44%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Goñi / AlonsoTello / Arce

43%
Points won
57%
56%
Points won on serve
71%
29%
Points won on return
44%
54%
1st-serve points won
70%
67%
2nd-serve points won
83%
30%
Points won returning 1st serve
46%
17%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
0%
Break points converted
38%
5
Longest run of points
5
10
Service games
9
Stats by set

Set 1

43%
Points won
57%
58%
Points won on serve
71%
29%
Points won on return
42%
56%
1st-serve points won
67%
75%
2nd-serve points won
100%
33%
Points won returning 1st serve
44%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
25%
0%
Break points converted
33%
5
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
5

Set 2

42%
Points won
58%
53%
Points won on serve
72%
28%
Points won on return
47%
52%
1st-serve points won
74%
60%
2nd-serve points won
50%
26%
Points won returning 1st serve
48%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
40%
0%
Break points converted
40%
3
Longest run of points
4
5
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Goñi / Alonso first, Tello / Arce second.

103 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 14–6

Breaks 0–1

  1. 1–0

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 15–30
    6. 15–40
    7. 30–40
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    10. 40–40
    11. 40–A
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  6. 2–4

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  10. 4–6

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold

Set 23–6

Breaks 0–2

  1. 1–0

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  6. 2–4

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–30BP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    10. 40–40
    11. 40–A
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  9. 3–6

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.