The Padel Brief

FinalMenOctober 31, 2026

Tapia / Coello v Tello / Arce

A. TapiaA. Coello
Winner
66
J. TelloM. Arce
11
Center Court Bnk00:55

Pre-match odds

Tapia / Coello

97%

Avg Elo 2133

Tello / Arce

3%

Avg Elo 1817

Elo gap 316

Tapia / Coello delivered as 97% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Tapia / CoelloTello / Arce

62%
Points won
38%
66%
Points won on serve
43%
57%
Points won on return
34%
65%
1st-serve points won
44%
75%
2nd-serve points won
40%
56%
Points won returning 1st serve
35%
60%
Points won returning 2nd serve
25%
62%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
4
7
Service games
7
Stats by set

Set 1

66%
Points won
34%
68%
Points won on serve
36%
64%
Points won on return
32%
72%
1st-serve points won
35%
0%
2nd-serve points won
50%
65%
Points won returning 1st serve
28%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
75%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
4
3
Service games
4

Set 2

58%
Points won
42%
65%
Points won on serve
50%
50%
Points won on return
35%
61%
1st-serve points won
53%
100%
2nd-serve points won
33%
47%
Points won returning 1st serve
39%
67%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
50%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
3

Point by point

Scores read Tapia / Coello first, Tello / Arce second.

83 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–1

Breaks 3–0

  1. 1–0

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 30–0
    5. 40–0BP
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Tapia / Coello serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  3. 3–0

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  4. 4–0

    Tapia / Coello serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  6. 5–1

    Tapia / Coello serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 15–15
    5. 30–15
    6. 40–30
    Hold
  7. 6–1

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break

Set 26–1

Breaks 2–0

  1. 1–0

    Tapia / Coello serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  2. 2–0

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 30–30
    7. 40–30BP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    10. 40–40
    11. A–40BP
    Break
  3. 3–0

    Tapia / Coello serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Tapia / Coello serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  6. 5–1

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  7. 6–1

    Tapia / Coello serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.