The Padel Brief

Round of 64WomenOctober 26, 2026

Nogueira / Kurz v Carrascosa / Fernandez

A. NogueiraV. Kurz
65
C. CarrascosaM. Fernandez
Winner
77
Court 3 Volvo01:39

Pre-match odds

Nogueira / Kurz

52%

Avg Elo 1533

Carrascosa / Fernandez

48%

Avg Elo 1527

Elo gap 6

Carrascosa / Fernandez won a near coin flip (48%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Point by point

Scores read Nogueira / Kurz first, Carrascosa / Fernandez second.

126 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–7

Breaks 1–1

  1. 0–1

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  2. 0–2

    Nogueira / Kurz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  3. 0–3

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Nogueira / Kurz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Break
  6. 3–3

    Nogueira / Kurz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Nogueira / Kurz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 15–0
    4. 30–0
    5. 30–15
    6. 30–0
    7. 30–15
    8. 40–15
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Nogueira / Kurz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  11. 5–6

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    Hold
  12. 6–6

    Nogueira / Kurz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  13. 6–7

    Carrascosa / Fernandez take it 8–6

    1. 1–0
    2. 1–1
    3. 1–2
    4. 1–3
    5. 2–3
    6. 3–3
    7. 3–4
    8. 4–4
    9. 4–5
    10. 5–5
    11. 6–5
    12. 6–6
    13. 6–7
    Tiebreak

Set 25–7

Breaks 2–3

  1. 1–0

    Nogueira / Kurz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Nogueira / Kurz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  4. 2–2

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    Break
  5. 3–2

    Nogueira / Kurz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Nogueira / Kurz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Nogueira / Kurz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    Break
  10. 5–5

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15BP
    4. 40–30BP
    Break
  11. 5–6

    Nogueira / Kurz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break
  12. 5–7

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.