The Padel Brief

Round of 64WomenOctober 26, 2026

Borrero / Navarro v Manquillo / Sainz

M. BorreroT. Navarro
31
L. ManquilloL. Sainz
Winner
66
Court 3 Volvo01:09

Pre-match odds

Borrero / Navarro

51%

Avg Elo 1631

Manquillo / Sainz

49%

Avg Elo 1628

Elo gap 3

Manquillo / Sainz won a near coin flip (49%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Borrero / NavarroManquillo / Sainz

40%
Points won
60%
52%
Points won on serve
74%
26%
Points won on return
48%
53%
1st-serve points won
71%
50%
2nd-serve points won
100%
29%
Points won returning 1st serve
47%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
0%
Break points converted
80%
3
Longest run of points
5
8
Service games
8
1
Double faults
0
Stats by set

Set 1

42%
Points won
58%
64%
Points won on serve
77%
23%
Points won on return
36%
60%
1st-serve points won
74%
71%
2nd-serve points won
100%
26%
Points won returning 1st serve
40%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
29%
0%
Break points converted
100%
3
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
5

Set 2

38%
Points won
62%
43%
Points won on serve
71%
29%
Points won on return
57%
48%
1st-serve points won
67%
29%
2nd-serve points won
100%
33%
Points won returning 1st serve
52%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
71%
0%
Break points converted
75%
3
Longest run of points
5
4
Service games
3
1
Double faults
0

Point by point

Scores read Borrero / Navarro first, Manquillo / Sainz second.

76 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 13–6

Breaks 0–1

  1. 0–1

    Manquillo / Sainz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Borrero / Navarro serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Manquillo / Sainz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Borrero / Navarro serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Manquillo / Sainz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Borrero / Navarro serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  7. 2–5

    Manquillo / Sainz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Borrero / Navarro serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  9. 3–6

    Manquillo / Sainz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold

Set 21–6

Breaks 0–3

  1. 1–0

    Borrero / Navarro serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Manquillo / Sainz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Borrero / Navarro serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  4. 1–3

    Manquillo / Sainz serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  5. 1–4

    Borrero / Navarro serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–ABP
    Break
  6. 1–5

    Manquillo / Sainz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  7. 1–6

    Borrero / Navarro serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.