The Padel Brief

Round of 32WomenOctober 27, 2026

Talavan / Saiz v Castello / Rodriguez

M. TalavanS. Saiz
Winner
476
J. CastelloM. Rodriguez
654
Court 2 Nic02:33

Pre-match odds

Talavan / Saiz

42%

Avg Elo 1686

Castello / Rodriguez

58%

Avg Elo 1714

Elo gap 28

Talavan / Saiz won as slight underdogs (42%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Talavan / SaizCastello / Rodriguez

49%
Points won
51%
60%
Points won on serve
61%
39%
Points won on return
40%
59%
1st-serve points won
63%
75%
2nd-serve points won
50%
37%
Points won returning 1st serve
41%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
25%
29%
Break points converted
50%
10
Longest run of points
5
16
Service games
16
Stats by set

Set 1

44%
Points won
56%
45%
Points won on serve
56%
44%
Points won on return
55%
43%
1st-serve points won
57%
67%
2nd-serve points won
50%
43%
Points won returning 1st serve
57%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
29%
Break points converted
60%
4
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
5

Set 2

49%
Points won
51%
60%
Points won on serve
66%
34%
Points won on return
40%
59%
1st-serve points won
68%
75%
2nd-serve points won
50%
32%
Points won returning 1st serve
41%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
25%
40%
Break points converted
100%
10
Longest run of points
4
6
Service games
6

Set 3

54%
Points won
46%
76%
Points won on serve
62%
38%
Points won on return
24%
75%
1st-serve points won
64%
100%
2nd-serve points won
50%
36%
Points won returning 1st serve
25%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
20%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Talavan / Saiz first, Castello / Rodriguez second.

181 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 14–6

Breaks 2–3

  1. 0–1

    Castello / Rodriguez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  2. 0–2

    Talavan / Saiz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–0
    5. 30–15
    6. 40–15
    7. 40–30
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–ABP
    Break
  3. 1–2

    Castello / Rodriguez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    Break
  4. 2–2

    Talavan / Saiz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Castello / Rodriguez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Talavan / Saiz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    4. 30–15
    5. 40–15
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Castello / Rodriguez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 30–30
    7. 30–40
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Talavan / Saiz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  9. 4–5

    Castello / Rodriguez serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40BP
    7. 40–40
    8. A–40BP
    9. 40–40
    Break
  10. 4–6

    Talavan / Saiz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Break

Set 27–5

Breaks 2–1

  1. 0–1

    Castello / Rodriguez serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Talavan / Saiz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. A–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    10. 40–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Castello / Rodriguez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Talavan / Saiz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Castello / Rodriguez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Talavan / Saiz serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Castello / Rodriguez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Talavan / Saiz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  9. 4–5

    Castello / Rodriguez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  10. 5–5

    Talavan / Saiz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  11. 6–5

    Castello / Rodriguez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    10. 40–40
    Break
  12. 7–5

    Talavan / Saiz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    7. 40–40
    8. A–40
    Hold

Set 36–4

Breaks 1–0

  1. 1–0

    Castello / Rodriguez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    10. 40–40
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Talavan / Saiz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 0–0
    3. 15–0
    4. 15–15
    5. 15–30
    6. 15–15
    7. 15–30
    8. 15–40BP
    9. 30–40BP
    10. 40–40
    11. A–40
    12. 40–40
    13. A–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Castello / Rodriguez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Talavan / Saiz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Castello / Rodriguez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Talavan / Saiz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Castello / Rodriguez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Talavan / Saiz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Castello / Rodriguez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  10. 6–4

    Talavan / Saiz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.