The Padel Brief

Round of 32WomenOctober 27, 2026

Carrascosa / Fernandez v Alonso / Guinart

C. CarrascosaM. Fernandez
51
A. AlonsoM. Guinart
Winner
76
Court 1 Alghanim01:07

Pre-match odds

Carrascosa / Fernandez

9%

Avg Elo 1544

Alonso / Guinart

91%

Avg Elo 1742

Elo gap 198

Alonso / Guinart delivered as 91% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Carrascosa / FernandezAlonso / Guinart

42%
Points won
58%
50%
Points won on serve
68%
32%
Points won on return
50%
51%
1st-serve points won
69%
47%
2nd-serve points won
62%
31%
Points won returning 1st serve
49%
38%
Points won returning 2nd serve
53%
25%
Break points converted
56%
4
Longest run of points
7
10
Service games
9
Stats by set

Set 1

46%
Points won
54%
53%
Points won on serve
62%
38%
Points won on return
47%
56%
1st-serve points won
62%
44%
2nd-serve points won
62%
38%
Points won returning 1st serve
44%
38%
Points won returning 2nd serve
56%
25%
Break points converted
33%
4
Longest run of points
6
6
Service games
6

Set 2

36%
Points won
64%
45%
Points won on serve
86%
14%
Points won on return
55%
44%
1st-serve points won
86%
50%
2nd-serve points won
0%
14%
Points won returning 1st serve
56%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
0%
Break points converted
100%
3
Longest run of points
7
4
Service games
3

Point by point

Scores read Carrascosa / Fernandez first, Alonso / Guinart second.

96 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 15–7

Breaks 1–2

  1. 1–0

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 30–30
    3. 40–40
    4. A–40
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    7. 40–40
    8. A–40
    9. 40–40
    10. A–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Alonso / Guinart serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Alonso / Guinart serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15BP
    4. 40–30BP
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40BP
    Break
  6. 3–3

    Alonso / Guinart serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    Break
  7. 4–3

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Alonso / Guinart serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Alonso / Guinart serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  11. 5–6

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break
  12. 5–7

    Alonso / Guinart serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    Hold

Set 21–6

Breaks 0–3

  1. 0–1

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    Break
  2. 0–2

    Alonso / Guinart serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  3. 0–3

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–30
    3. 40–30
    4. 40–40
    5. 40–ABP
    Break
  4. 0–4

    Alonso / Guinart serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    Hold
  5. 1–4

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  6. 1–5

    Alonso / Guinart serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  7. 1–6

    Carrascosa / Fernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.