The Padel Brief

Round of 32WomenOctober 27, 2026

Caldera / Goenaga v Castillon / Vano

B. CalderaC. Goenaga
Winner
67
C. CastillonL. Vano
05
Court 2 Nic01:11

Pre-match odds

Caldera / Goenaga

95%

Avg Elo 1821

Castillon / Vano

5%

Avg Elo 1568

Elo gap 253

Caldera / Goenaga delivered as 95% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Caldera / GoenagaCastillon / Vano

60%
Points won
40%
71%
Points won on serve
50%
50%
Points won on return
29%
70%
1st-serve points won
52%
75%
2nd-serve points won
43%
48%
Points won returning 1st serve
30%
57%
Points won returning 2nd serve
25%
45%
Break points converted
100%
6
Longest run of points
5
9
Service games
9
Stats by set

Set 1

71%
Points won
29%
70%
Points won on serve
28%
72%
Points won on return
30%
68%
1st-serve points won
25%
100%
2nd-serve points won
33%
75%
Points won returning 1st serve
32%
67%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
75%
Break points converted
0%
4
Longest run of points
2
3
Service games
3

Set 2

54%
Points won
46%
72%
Points won on serve
60%
40%
Points won on return
28%
72%
1st-serve points won
62%
71%
2nd-serve points won
50%
38%
Points won returning 1st serve
28%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
29%
29%
Break points converted
100%
6
Longest run of points
5
6
Service games
6

Point by point

Scores read Caldera / Goenaga first, Castillon / Vano second.

83 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–0

Breaks 3–0

  1. 1–0

    Caldera / Goenaga serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. A–40
    Hold
  2. 2–0

    Castillon / Vano serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  3. 3–0

    Caldera / Goenaga serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  4. 4–0

    Castillon / Vano serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  5. 5–0

    Caldera / Goenaga serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  6. 6–0

    Castillon / Vano serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break

Set 27–5

Breaks 2–1

  1. 1–0

    Caldera / Goenaga serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Castillon / Vano serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Caldera / Goenaga serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Castillon / Vano serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Caldera / Goenaga serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Castillon / Vano serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Caldera / Goenaga serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Castillon / Vano serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    Break
  9. 5–4

    Caldera / Goenaga serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 15–0
    4. 15–15
    5. 15–30
    6. 30–30
    7. 15–30
    8. 30–30
    9. 15–30
    10. 30–30
    11. 15–30
    12. 30–40BP
    Break
  10. 5–5

    Castillon / Vano serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  11. 6–5

    Caldera / Goenaga serving

    1. 40–40
    2. A–40
    Hold
  12. 7–5

    Castillon / Vano serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.