The Padel Brief

Round of 32WomenOctober 27, 2026

Manquillo / Sainz v Rufo / Iglesias

L. ManquilloL. Sainz
64
L. RufoV. Iglesias
Winner
76
Court 2 Nic01:49

Pre-match odds

Manquillo / Sainz

33%

Avg Elo 1655

Rufo / Iglesias

67%

Avg Elo 1716

Elo gap 61

Rufo / Iglesias delivered as 67% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Manquillo / SainzRufo / Iglesias

45%
Points won
55%
59%
Points won on serve
70%
30%
Points won on return
41%
59%
1st-serve points won
67%
62%
2nd-serve points won
90%
33%
Points won returning 1st serve
41%
10%
Points won returning 2nd serve
38%
25%
Break points converted
33%
4
Longest run of points
8
11
Service games
11
Stats by set

Set 1

47%
Points won
53%
58%
Points won on serve
65%
35%
Points won on return
42%
57%
1st-serve points won
63%
67%
2nd-serve points won
80%
37%
Points won returning 1st serve
43%
20%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
25%
Break points converted
20%
4
Longest run of points
5
6
Service games
6

Set 2

43%
Points won
57%
61%
Points won on serve
80%
20%
Points won on return
39%
62%
1st-serve points won
75%
50%
2nd-serve points won
100%
25%
Points won returning 1st serve
38%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
0%
Break points converted
100%
3
Longest run of points
8
5
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Manquillo / Sainz first, Rufo / Iglesias second.

128 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–7

Breaks 1–1

  1. 1–0

    Rufo / Iglesias serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Manquillo / Sainz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Rufo / Iglesias serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Manquillo / Sainz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Rufo / Iglesias serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Manquillo / Sainz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Rufo / Iglesias serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Manquillo / Sainz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  9. 4–5

    Rufo / Iglesias serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 15–30
    6. 30–30
    7. 40–30BP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    10. 40–40
    11. 40–A
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Manquillo / Sainz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  11. 5–6

    Rufo / Iglesias serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 0–0
    5. 15–40
    6. 30–40
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–A
    Hold
  12. 6–6

    Manquillo / Sainz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  13. 6–7

    Rufo / Iglesias take it 7–4

    1. 1–2
    2. 1–3
    3. 1–4
    4. 1–5
    5. 2–5
    6. 3–5
    7. 3–6
    8. 4–6
    Tiebreak

Set 24–6

Breaks 0–1

  1. 1–0

    Manquillo / Sainz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Rufo / Iglesias serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Manquillo / Sainz serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Rufo / Iglesias serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Manquillo / Sainz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Rufo / Iglesias serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30BP
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Manquillo / Sainz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 15–30
    6. 30–30
    7. 30–40BP
    Break
  8. 3–5

    Rufo / Iglesias serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Manquillo / Sainz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  10. 4–6

    Rufo / Iglesias serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.