The Padel Brief

Round of 16WomenOctober 28, 2026

Ortega / Araujo v Orsi / Llaguno

M. OrtegaS. Araujo
Winner
656
C. OrsiP. Llaguno
074
Court 2 Nic02:13

Pre-match odds

Ortega / Araujo

82%

Avg Elo 1837

Orsi / Llaguno

18%

Avg Elo 1705

Elo gap 132

Ortega / Araujo delivered as 82% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Ortega / AraujoOrsi / Llaguno

55%
Points won
45%
60%
Points won on serve
49%
51%
Points won on return
40%
61%
1st-serve points won
54%
53%
2nd-serve points won
18%
46%
Points won returning 1st serve
39%
82%
Points won returning 2nd serve
47%
88%
Break points converted
50%
7
Longest run of points
5
14
Service games
14
Stats by set

Set 1

62%
Points won
38%
59%
Points won on serve
33%
67%
Points won on return
41%
59%
1st-serve points won
39%
60%
2nd-serve points won
0%
61%
Points won returning 1st serve
41%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
40%
75%
Break points converted
0%
4
Longest run of points
2
3
Service games
3

Set 2

51%
Points won
49%
55%
Points won on serve
53%
47%
Points won on return
45%
61%
1st-serve points won
58%
0%
2nd-serve points won
20%
42%
Points won returning 1st serve
39%
80%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
100%
Break points converted
50%
7
Longest run of points
4
6
Service games
6

Set 3

55%
Points won
45%
67%
Points won on serve
57%
43%
Points won on return
33%
62%
1st-serve points won
60%
83%
2nd-serve points won
33%
40%
Points won returning 1st serve
38%
67%
Points won returning 2nd serve
17%
100%
Break points converted
100%
4
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Ortega / Araujo first, Orsi / Llaguno second.

156 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–0

Breaks 3–0

  1. 1–0

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  2. 2–0

    Orsi / Llaguno serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    Break
  3. 3–0

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–15
    4. 15–30
    5. 30–30
    6. 40–30
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–ABP
    9. 40–40
    10. A–40
    Hold
  4. 4–0

    Orsi / Llaguno serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  5. 5–0

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    7. 40–40
    8. A–40
    9. 40–40
    Hold
  6. 6–0

    Orsi / Llaguno serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break

Set 25–7

Breaks 2–3

  1. 1–0

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Orsi / Llaguno serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break
  4. 2–2

    Orsi / Llaguno serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  5. 3–2

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Orsi / Llaguno serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  7. 4–3

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–0
    5. 30–15
    6. 30–30
    7. 30–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    10. 40–40
    11. 40–ABP
    12. 40–40
    Break
  8. 4–4

    Orsi / Llaguno serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 30–0
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Orsi / Llaguno serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    Hold
  11. 5–6

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  12. 5–7

    Orsi / Llaguno serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold

Set 36–4

Breaks 2–1

  1. 1–0

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Orsi / Llaguno serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    Break
  4. 1–3

    Orsi / Llaguno serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–0
    4. 15–15
    5. 30–15
    6. 40–15
    7. 30–15
    8. 40–15
    9. 40–30
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Orsi / Llaguno serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Orsi / Llaguno serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  9. 5–4

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  10. 6–4

    Orsi / Llaguno serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.