The Padel Brief

Round of 16WomenOctober 28, 2026

Ustero / Sanchez v Fassio / Virseda

A. UsteroA. Sanchez
Winner
66
M. FassioV. Virseda
21
Court 1 Alghanim01:02

Pre-match odds

Ustero / Sanchez

97%

Avg Elo 2075

Fassio / Virseda

3%

Avg Elo 1776

Elo gap 299

Ustero / Sanchez delivered as 97% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Ustero / SanchezFassio / Virseda

65%
Points won
35%
65%
Points won on serve
35%
65%
Points won on return
35%
64%
1st-serve points won
32%
67%
2nd-serve points won
50%
68%
Points won returning 1st serve
36%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
83%
Break points converted
25%
9
Longest run of points
3
8
Service games
7
Stats by set

Set 1

63%
Points won
37%
69%
Points won on serve
44%
56%
Points won on return
31%
71%
1st-serve points won
41%
50%
2nd-serve points won
67%
59%
Points won returning 1st serve
29%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
67%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
3
4
Service games
4

Set 2

68%
Points won
32%
59%
Points won on serve
20%
80%
Points won on return
41%
56%
1st-serve points won
17%
75%
2nd-serve points won
33%
83%
Points won returning 1st serve
44%
67%
Points won returning 2nd serve
25%
100%
Break points converted
100%
9
Longest run of points
2
4
Service games
3

Point by point

Scores read Ustero / Sanchez first, Fassio / Virseda second.

72 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–2

Breaks 2–0

  1. 1–0

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Fassio / Virseda serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Fassio / Virseda serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Fassio / Virseda serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  7. 5–2

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  8. 6–2

    Fassio / Virseda serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Break

Set 26–1

Breaks 3–1

  1. 1–0

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 15–30
    6. 30–30
    7. 40–30
    Hold
  2. 2–0

    Fassio / Virseda serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  3. 2–1

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  4. 3–1

    Fassio / Virseda serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15BP
    Break
  5. 4–1

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  6. 5–1

    Fassio / Virseda serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Break
  7. 6–1

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.