The Padel Brief

Round of 16WomenOctober 28, 2026

Caldera / Goenaga v Jensen / Icardo

B. CalderaC. Goenaga
61
C. JensenT. Icardo
Winner
76
Court 2 Nic01:50

Pre-match odds

Caldera / Goenaga

28%

Avg Elo 1824

Jensen / Icardo

72%

Avg Elo 1908

Elo gap 84

Jensen / Icardo delivered as 72% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Caldera / GoenagaJensen / Icardo

44%
Points won
56%
47%
Points won on serve
59%
41%
Points won on return
53%
53%
1st-serve points won
54%
0%
2nd-serve points won
90%
46%
Points won returning 1st serve
47%
10%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
43%
Break points converted
83%
6
Longest run of points
8
9
Service games
10
1
Double faults
0
Stats by set

Set 1

49%
Points won
51%
56%
Points won on serve
58%
42%
Points won on return
44%
61%
1st-serve points won
53%
0%
2nd-serve points won
86%
47%
Points won returning 1st serve
39%
14%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
67%
Break points converted
67%
6
Longest run of points
6
6
Service games
6
1
Double faults
0

Set 2

35%
Points won
65%
26%
Points won on serve
60%
40%
Points won on return
74%
33%
1st-serve points won
56%
0%
2nd-serve points won
100%
44%
Points won returning 1st serve
67%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
25%
Break points converted
100%
3
Longest run of points
8
3
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Caldera / Goenaga first, Jensen / Icardo second.

117 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–7

Breaks 2–2

  1. 0–1

    Caldera / Goenaga serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  2. 1–1

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  3. 1–2

    Caldera / Goenaga serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–ABP
    10. 40–40
    11. 40–ABP
    Break
  4. 1–3

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Caldera / Goenaga serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Caldera / Goenaga serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Caldera / Goenaga serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  11. 6–5

    Caldera / Goenaga serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  12. 6–6

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  13. 6–7

    Jensen / Icardo take it 7–3

    1. 0–1
    2. 0–2
    3. 1–2
    4. 2–2
    5. 2–3
    6. 2–4
    7. 2–5
    8. 3–5
    9. 3–6
    Tiebreak

Set 21–6

Breaks 1–3

  1. 0–1

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  2. 0–2

    Caldera / Goenaga serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    Break
  3. 0–3

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  4. 0–4

    Caldera / Goenaga serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–ABP
    Break
  5. 1–4

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    10. 40–40
    Break
  6. 1–5

    Caldera / Goenaga serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  7. 1–6

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.