The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalWomenOctober 29, 2026

Ortega / Araujo v Fernandez / Calvo

M. OrtegaS. Araujo
10
C. FernandezM. Calvo
Winner
66
Court 1 Alghanim00:56

Pre-match odds

Ortega / Araujo

11%

Avg Elo 1845

Fernandez / Calvo

89%

Avg Elo 2027

Elo gap 182

Fernandez / Calvo delivered as 89% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Ortega / AraujoFernandez / Calvo

32%
Points won
68%
30%
Points won on serve
67%
33%
Points won on return
70%
33%
1st-serve points won
70%
0%
2nd-serve points won
50%
30%
Points won returning 1st serve
67%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
100%
Break points converted
75%
4
Longest run of points
10
6
Service games
7
Stats by set

Set 1

32%
Points won
68%
32%
Points won on serve
67%
33%
Points won on return
68%
38%
1st-serve points won
67%
0%
2nd-serve points won
67%
33%
Points won returning 1st serve
62%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
100%
Break points converted
60%
4
Longest run of points
8
3
Service games
4

Set 2

31%
Points won
69%
28%
Points won on serve
67%
33%
Points won on return
72%
29%
1st-serve points won
73%
0%
2nd-serve points won
33%
27%
Points won returning 1st serve
71%
67%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
0%
Break points converted
100%
3
Longest run of points
5
3
Service games
3

Point by point

Scores read Ortega / Araujo first, Fernandez / Calvo second.

56 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 11–6

Breaks 1–3

  1. 0–1

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    Hold
  2. 0–2

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  3. 1–2

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  4. 1–3

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break
  5. 1–4

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  6. 1–5

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  7. 1–6

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold

Set 20–6

Breaks 0–3

  1. 0–1

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 15–40BP
    Break
  2. 0–2

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  3. 0–3

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  4. 0–4

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  5. 0–5

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break
  6. 0–6

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.