The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalWomenOctober 29, 2026

Ustero / Sanchez v Jensen / Icardo

A. UsteroA. Sanchez
Winner
367
C. JensenT. Icardo
645
Center Court Bnk02:52

Pre-match odds

Ustero / Sanchez

86%

Avg Elo 2077

Jensen / Icardo

14%

Avg Elo 1921

Elo gap 156

Ustero / Sanchez delivered as 86% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Ustero / SanchezJensen / Icardo

51%
Points won
49%
55%
Points won on serve
54%
46%
Points won on return
45%
55%
1st-serve points won
50%
57%
2nd-serve points won
83%
50%
Points won returning 1st serve
45%
17%
Points won returning 2nd serve
43%
86%
Break points converted
36%
6
Longest run of points
6
15
Service games
16
Stats by set

Set 1

45%
Points won
55%
54%
Points won on serve
63%
37%
Points won on return
46%
52%
1st-serve points won
59%
67%
2nd-serve points won
80%
41%
Points won returning 1st serve
48%
20%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
100%
Break points converted
100%
5
Longest run of points
5
4
Service games
5

Set 2

53%
Points won
47%
56%
Points won on serve
52%
48%
Points won on return
44%
57%
1st-serve points won
48%
50%
2nd-serve points won
75%
52%
Points won returning 1st serve
43%
25%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
67%
Break points converted
25%
5
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
5

Set 3

53%
Points won
47%
55%
Points won on serve
50%
50%
Points won on return
45%
54%
1st-serve points won
45%
67%
2nd-serve points won
100%
55%
Points won returning 1st serve
46%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
100%
Break points converted
25%
6
Longest run of points
6
6
Service games
6

Point by point

Scores read Ustero / Sanchez first, Jensen / Icardo second.

173 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 13–6

Breaks 1–2

  1. 0–1

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 30–15
    6. 40–30
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–ABP
    Break
  5. 1–4

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  8. 3–5

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  9. 3–6

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–0
    3. 0–15
    4. 0–30
    5. 15–30
    6. 15–40
    Hold

Set 26–4

Breaks 2–1

  1. 1–0

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    7. 40–40
    8. A–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  7. 5–2

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    10. 40–40
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–15
    4. 0–30
    5. 15–30
    6. 15–40BP
    7. 30–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–ABP
    Break
  10. 6–4

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break

Set 37–5

Breaks 3–2

  1. 0–1

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40BP
    4. 30–40BP
    Break
  2. 1–1

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    Break
  3. 1–2

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  4. 1–3

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–0
    3. 0–15
    4. 0–30
    5. 15–30
    6. 15–40
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–ABP
    10. 40–40
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  9. 5–4

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  11. 6–5

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 15–0
    4. 30–0
    5. 30–15
    6. 40–15
    Hold
  12. 7–5

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.