The Padel Brief

SemifinalWomenOctober 30, 2026

Brea / Triay v Fernandez / Calvo

D. BreaG. Triay
Winner
627
C. FernandezM. Calvo
466
Center Court Bnk03:06

Pre-match odds

Brea / Triay

40%

Avg Elo 1999

Fernandez / Calvo

60%

Avg Elo 2034

Elo gap 35

Brea / Triay won as slight underdogs (40%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Brea / TriayFernandez / Calvo

51%
Points won
49%
62%
Points won on serve
58%
42%
Points won on return
38%
64%
1st-serve points won
58%
56%
2nd-serve points won
59%
42%
Points won returning 1st serve
36%
41%
Points won returning 2nd serve
44%
25%
Break points converted
44%
11
Longest run of points
7
15
Service games
15
Stats by set

Set 1

54%
Points won
46%
69%
Points won on serve
61%
39%
Points won on return
31%
67%
1st-serve points won
57%
80%
2nd-serve points won
67%
43%
Points won returning 1st serve
33%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
20%
33%
Break points converted
0%
4
Longest run of points
4
5
Service games
5

Set 2

44%
Points won
56%
42%
Points won on serve
53%
47%
Points won on return
58%
50%
1st-serve points won
54%
0%
2nd-serve points won
50%
46%
Points won returning 1st serve
50%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
14%
Break points converted
60%
7
Longest run of points
7
4
Service games
4

Set 3

54%
Points won
46%
69%
Points won on serve
60%
40%
Points won on return
31%
70%
1st-serve points won
62%
67%
2nd-serve points won
55%
38%
Points won returning 1st serve
30%
45%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
50%
Break points converted
33%
4
Longest run of points
4
6
Service games
6

Point by point

Scores read Brea / Triay first, Fernandez / Calvo second.

169 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–4

Breaks 1–0

  1. 0–1

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    10. 40–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15BP
    4. 40–30BP
    Break
  6. 4–2

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  10. 6–4

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold

Set 22–6

Breaks 1–3

  1. 1–0

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  5. 2–3

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break
  7. 2–5

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  8. 2–6

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break

Set 37–6

Breaks 1–1

  1. 0–1

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  5. 2–3

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  6. 3–3

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  11. 5–6

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  12. 6–6

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  13. 6–6

    Game 13

    1. 0–1
    2. 1–1
    3. 2–1
    4. 3–1
    5. 3–2
    6. 3–3
    7. 4–3
    8. 5–3
    9. 6–3

    127 games not captured

    Tiebreak
  14. 77–63

    Brea / Triay serving

      —

    The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.