The Padel Brief

SemifinalWomenOctober 30, 2026

Ustero / Sanchez v Gonzalez / Josemaria

A. UsteroA. Sanchez
Winner
477
B. GonzalezP. Josemaria
666
Center Court Bnk03:42

Pre-match odds

Ustero / Sanchez

69%

Avg Elo 2079

Gonzalez / Josemaria

31%

Avg Elo 2010

Elo gap 69

Ustero / Sanchez delivered as 69% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Ustero / SanchezGonzalez / Josemaria

50%
Points won
50%
50%
Points won on serve
50%
50%
Points won on return
50%
51%
1st-serve points won
48%
45%
2nd-serve points won
60%
52%
Points won returning 1st serve
49%
40%
Points won returning 2nd serve
55%
40%
Break points converted
64%
6
Longest run of points
8
17
Service games
17
Stats by set

Set 1

44%
Points won
56%
45%
Points won on serve
56%
44%
Points won on return
55%
48%
1st-serve points won
57%
0%
2nd-serve points won
50%
43%
Points won returning 1st serve
52%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
33%
Break points converted
75%
5
Longest run of points
8
5
Service games
5

Set 2

53%
Points won
47%
53%
Points won on serve
47%
53%
Points won on return
47%
51%
1st-serve points won
46%
62%
2nd-serve points won
50%
54%
Points won returning 1st serve
49%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
38%
43%
Break points converted
60%
6
Longest run of points
4
6
Service games
6

Set 3

50%
Points won
50%
50%
Points won on serve
50%
50%
Points won on return
50%
53%
1st-serve points won
44%
40%
2nd-serve points won
73%
56%
Points won returning 1st serve
47%
27%
Points won returning 2nd serve
60%
43%
Break points converted
60%
4
Longest run of points
5
6
Service games
6

Point by point

Scores read Ustero / Sanchez first, Gonzalez / Josemaria second.

228 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 14–6

Breaks 2–3

  1. 0–1

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  2. 0–2

    Gonzalez / Josemaria serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–A
    9. 40–40
    10. 40–A
    Hold
  3. 0–3

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  4. 1–3

    Gonzalez / Josemaria serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–15BP
    7. 40–30BP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    Break
  5. 1–4

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break
  6. 1–5

    Gonzalez / Josemaria serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  7. 2–5

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Gonzalez / Josemaria serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  9. 4–5

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  10. 4–6

    Gonzalez / Josemaria serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold

Set 27–6

Breaks 3–3

  1. 0–1

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  2. 0–2

    Gonzalez / Josemaria serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    10. 40–40
    Hold
  3. 0–3

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 30–30
    7. 30–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    10. 40–40
    11. 40–ABP
    Break
  4. 1–3

    Gonzalez / Josemaria serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  5. 2–3

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–30
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Gonzalez / Josemaria serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  7. 4–3

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 30–15
    2. 40–15
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Gonzalez / Josemaria serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 15–15
    5. 30–15
    6. 30–30
    7. 40–30
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Gonzalez / Josemaria serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  11. 5–6

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break
  12. 6–6

    Gonzalez / Josemaria serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  13. 7–6

    Ustero / Sanchez take it 7–5

    1. 0–1
    2. 0–2
    3. 0–3
    4. 1–3
    5. 2–3
    6. 3–3
    7. 4–3
    8. 5–3
    9. 5–4
    10. 6–4
    11. 6–5
    Tiebreak

Set 37–6

Breaks 3–3

  1. 1–0

    Gonzalez / Josemaria serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 30–30
    7. 40–30BP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    10. 40–40
    11. A–40BP
    12. 40–40
    Break
  2. 1–1

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break
  3. 2–1

    Gonzalez / Josemaria serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  4. 2–2

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–ABP
    Break
  5. 2–3

    Gonzalez / Josemaria serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  7. 3–4

    Gonzalez / Josemaria serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–15
    6. 30–30
    7. 40–30BP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    10. 40–40
    11. 40–A
    12. 40–40
    Break
  8. 4–4

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Gonzalez / Josemaria serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  11. 5–6

    Gonzalez / Josemaria serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 15–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    Hold
  12. 6–6

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  13. 7–6

    Ustero / Sanchez take it 7–4

    1. 1–0
    2. 2–0
    3. 2–1
    4. 3–1
    5. 4–1
    6. 4–2
    7. 4–3
    8. 4–4
    9. 5–4
    10. 6–4
    Tiebreak

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.